Week 17 Fantasy Football Analysis

Valued Customers

Generated: 2025-12-21 23:14

55%
Win Probability
+11.0
Projected Margin
CI: [-9.0 to +31.0]
1
Boom Potential
Chargers D/ST
3
Bust Risk
Jameson Williams (43%), Bucky Irving (48%), Juwan Johnson (56%)

Start/Sit Decisions

Locked Slots (players already played):
RB: 🔒 Omarion Hampton 16.5 pts
WR: 🔒 Jameson Williams 12.0 pts
RB/WR/TE: 🔒 Marvin Harrison Jr. 2.4 pts
K: 🔒 Jason Myers 2.0 pts
TE: 🔒 Juwan Johnson 16.9 pts
QB: 🔒 Jacoby Brissett 10.6 pts
D/ST: 🔒 Chargers D/ST 4.0 pts
Pending Decisions:
: Start over Love OUT with concussion. Brissett has elite CIN matchup (51.5 game total, 5th-worst vs QB defense).
: Start over Irving is TB bellcow vs MIA (#15 RB defense). Hampton faces HOU #1 RB defense.
: Start over Spears coming off 21.5 pt Week 16 boom. NO allows 7th-most to RBs. Hampton's HOU matchup is brutal.
: Start over JSN is SEA WR1 vs CAR. Week 16: 23.6 pts. Consistent target share.
: Start over Williams vs MIN (#1 worst WR defense, 25.2 PPG). Christmas Day shootout (48.5 total).
: Start over McMillan in ARI @ CIN shootout (51.5 total). MHJ has heel concern and ARI is eliminated - snap count risk.
: Start over Debate result: Chargers have 35.9% MC BOOM (vs Rams 21.7%), only 22.3% BUST (vs Rams 39.8%). Boom/bust ratio 1.6x is championship-optimal.

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QB Jacoby Brissett CIN18.722.0BOOMMEDIUM
RB Bucky Irving MIA15.215.0MODERATEMEDIUM
RB Tyjae Spears NO8.712.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba CAR19.921.5BOOMMEDIUM
WR Jameson Williams MIN13.918.0BOOMMEDIUM
TE Juwan Johnson TEN9.711.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Tetairoa McMillan SEA13.215.0MODERATEMEDIUM
K Jason Myers CAR8.110.0MODERATEMEDIUM
D/ST Chargers D/ST HOU4.26.0BUSTMEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Championship Finals Week 17 - maximize ceiling, address Jordan Love OUT

#1 Harrison Mevis (K, LAC)
DROP: Jayden Reed (Love OUT tanks value)

Myers is solid but Mevis has been hot (30% boom in MC). With Reed's value tanked due to Love OUT, can upgrade kicker for ceiling play. Both kickers pr...

#2 Sam Darnold (QB, SEA)
DROP: Jordan Love

If Brissett disappoints, Darnold is a solid backup option. SEA offense clicking. However, Brissett @ CIN (51.5 total) is still the better play.

#3 Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC)
DROP: Rashee Rice (IR - useless)

Johnston has been on fire (20.4 pts Week 16). DAL matchup is excellent. Can replace Rice's IR roster clog.

⚠️ Avoid: Keenan Allen, Garrett Wilson, Jayden Daniels, Cooper Kupp

See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.

Executive Summary

Championship Finals Week 17 against Kitty's Piggy Skins (10-5, #1 seed). Jordan Love is OUT with concussion, so Jacoby Brissett starts at QB in an elite matchup vs CIN (51.5 game total, highest of the week). Key starters: JSN, Jameson Williams, Bucky Irving, Tyjae Spears. McMillan gets the FLEX nod over MHJ due to heel concerns. CHARGERS D/ST over Rams per debate (35.9% boom vs 21.7%). Projected: 130.5 pts.

Key Insights

Matchup Status (Week 17)

95.1 - 85.1 vs 4th and pinches

Games Completed (16)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs LLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB ✓ 10.6 18.7 22.0 -11.4
Bucky Irving RB RB ✓ 7.1 15.2 15.0 -7.9
Omarion Hampton RB RB ✓ 16.5 13.2 8.0 +8.5
Jameson Williams WR WR ✓ 12.0 15.9 18.0 -6.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR ✓ 23.6 19.9 21.5 +2.1
Juwan Johnson TE TE ✓ 16.9 9.1 11.0 +5.9
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR RB/WR/TE ✓ 2.4 12.2 12.0 -9.6
Jason Myers K K ✓ 2.0 8.1 10.0 -8.0
Chargers D/ST D/ST D/ST ✓ 4.0 4.2 6.0 -2.0
Devin Singletary (bench) RB BE ✓ 5.6 7.5 6.0 -0.4
Isiah Pacheco (bench) RB BE ✓ 13.5 9.3 6.0 +7.5
Jayden Reed (bench) WR BE ✓ 7.1 11.2 8.0 -0.9
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE ✓ 3.8 17.3 --- -13.5
Rams D/ST (bench) D/ST BE ✓ 4.0 5.6 8.0 -4.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench) WR BE ✓ 19.3 13.1 15.0 +4.3
Tyjae Spears (bench) RB BE ✓ 21.5 8.7 12.0 +9.5

Games Pending (1)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Rashee Rice (bench) WR IR 0.0 ---
95.1 Actual
130.5 LLM Total
95.1 ESPN Total

Opponent: 4th and pinches

Opponent Games Completed (15)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs ESPN
Baker Mayfield QB QB ✓ 12.7 16.6 --- -3.9
Kareem Hunt RB RB ✓ 0.2 11.0 --- -10.8
Rico Dowdle RB RB ✓ 8.3 15.2 --- -6.9
DK Metcalf WR WR ✓ 8.2 13.5 --- -5.3
Michael Wilson WR WR ✓ 13.2 14.1 --- -0.9
Trey McBride TE TE ✓ 6.7 16.8 --- -10.1
Jahmyr Gibbs RB RB/WR/TE ✓ 22.8 23.9 --- -1.1
Harrison Butker K K ✓ 11.0 8.0 --- +3.0
Jaguars D/ST D/ST D/ST ✓ 2.0 5.7 --- -3.7
Aaron Rodgers (bench) QB BE ✓ 15.5 14.8 --- +0.7
Colby Parkinson (bench) TE BE ✓ 4.1 9.6 --- -5.5
Darren Waller (bench) TE BE ✓ 7.0 9.3 --- -2.3
Jordan Addison (bench) WR BE ✓ 4.6 10.5 --- -5.9
Michael Carter (bench) RB BE ✓ 6.5 11.0 --- -4.5
Romeo Doubs (bench) WR BE ✓ 19.4 9.6 --- +9.8

Opponent Games Pending (1)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Rome Odunze (bench) WR BE 0.0 ---
85.1 Opp Actual
120.0 Opp LLM Total
85.1 Opp ESPN Total
Projected Margin: +10.5 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs BAL)

Projections: ESPN 17.3 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: CONFIRMED OUT with concussion (source: NFL.com). Cannot play Week 17. Backup Malik Willis also injured. Set to 0.0 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN14.817.013.9-0.9
14CHI17.618.019.3+1.6
13DET15.718.225.8+10.0
12MIN17.4-7.1-10.4
11NYG16.3-17.7+1.3
10PHI17.0-7.8-9.1
9CAR18.1-9.0-9.1
8PIT17.1-28.3+11.2
7ARI17.4-13.4-4.0
6CIN19.3-15.0-4.4
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL18.6-26.3+7.7
3CLE16.0-11.1-4.9
2WSH17.6-20.9+3.3
1DET14.9-15.9+1.0
  • Trending up: 19.7 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 18.7 | LLM 22.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 74% BOOM (historical pattern shows high ceiling). XGB: 13.5% boom, 36.4% bust (model underestimates). CIN allows 5th-most fantasy points to QBs (18.9 PPG). 51.5 game total is HIGHEST of the week. With MHJ and McMillan as weapons in shootout conditions, selecting BOOM mode. Projection: 22.0 pts (within BOOM range 17-29).

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU13.916.020.6+6.7
14LAR15.319.019.0+3.7
13TB17.220.519.6+2.4
12JAX16.7-18.7+1.9
11SF17.9-21.9+3.9
10SEA15.3-19.4+4.2
9DAL19.4-24.8+5.4
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB16.6-19.8+3.2
6IND13.4-20.7+7.3
5TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
4SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
3SF0.0-0.0+0.0
2CAR0.0-0.2+0.2
1NO0.1-0.0-0.1
  • 6-game streak of beating projections
  • Averaging 12.3 pts vs 9.7 projected (+27%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.85)
  • Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Bucky Irving (TB vs MIA)

Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 59% MODERATE, 25% BUST. XGB: 12.9% boom, 48.2% bust (over-predicts bust). TB bellcow vs MIA (#15 vs RB). Week 16: 7.1 pts underperformed but solid usage. Game total 46.5 supports scoring. Selecting MODERATE mode. Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-19).

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15ATL15.214.08.1-7.1
14NO16.416.016.1-0.3
13ARI11.812.016.1+4.3
12LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
11BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
10NE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
8NO0.0-0.0+0.0
7DET0.0-0.0+0.0
6SF0.0-0.0+0.0
5SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
4PHI17.5-25.5+8.0
3NYJ17.9-13.9-4.0
2HOU15.9-18.1+2.2
1ATL17.3-14.5-2.8
  • Trending up: 13.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 61% MODERATE, 25% BUST. XGB: 17.6% boom, 37.6% bust. Week 16 BOOMED with 21.5 pts. NO allows 7th-most to RBs. Haskins out elevated role. Selecting upper-MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-14).

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15SF10.06.05.6-4.4
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 5-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE, 32% BUST. XGB: 9.0% boom, 57.7% bust. HOU has #1 RB defense (15.0 PPG allowed). Tough matchup. Selecting BUST mode. Projection: 8.0 pts (within BUST range 1.4-8.9).

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15KC11.710.07.5-4.2
14PHI12.18.014.7+2.6
13LV0.00.00.0+0.0
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
10PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
9TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
8MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
7IND0.0-0.0+0.0
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH18.6-13.0-5.6
4NYG16.7-27.5+10.8
3DEN12.2-24.9+12.7
2LV15.7-3.5-12.2
1KC14.7-8.1-6.6
  • Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
  • Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs LV)

Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 61% BUST. XGB: 9.6% boom, 60.4% bust. NYG vs LV neutral but inconsistent. Bench depth only. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range -1.0-6.5).

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15WSH10.86.02.4-8.4
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 70% BUST, 27% MODERATE. XGB: 11.9% boom, 59.9% bust. Rib injury Week 16. Chiefs decimated (-11.5 dogs to DEN). Limited value in playoff week. Selecting BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 1-10).

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 19.9 | LLM 21.5 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 44% MODERATE, 29% BUST, 27% BOOM. XGB: 11.4% boom, 22.6% bust. SEA WR1 vs CAR (#11 vs WR). Week 16: 23.6 pts BOOM. Consistent target share. Selecting BOOM mode. Projection: 21.5 pts (within BOOM range 21.2-36.2).

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND20.622.018.3-2.3
14ATL20.922.028.1+7.2
13MIN21.924.04.3-17.6
12TEN21.3-37.1+15.8
11LAR23.0-20.6-2.4
10ARI22.0-20.3-1.7
9WSH24.5-22.0-2.5
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU20.0-26.3+6.3
6JAX17.9-30.2+12.3
5TB15.9-27.2+11.3
4ARI16.4-13.0-3.4
3NO15.5-20.6+5.1
2PIT14.4-18.3+3.9
1SF14.7-19.4+4.7
  • Averaging 20.4 pts vs 17.9 projected (+14%)
  • Trending down: 16.9 avg (last 3) vs 26.0 (prior 3)
  • Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs SEA)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 49% BUST, 37% MODERATE, 14% BOOM. XGB: 16.9% boom, 21.5% bust. ARI @ CIN (51.5 total). Rookie WR with Brissett chemistry. Week 16: 19.3 pts BOOM. Selecting upper-MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 10-20).

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15NO13.211.04.5-8.7
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 12.2 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE, 31% BUST, 27% BOOM. XGB: 42.3% boom, 22.4% bust. Heel injury concern. ARI eliminated from playoffs. CIN matchup is good but snap count uncertain. Selecting MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within MODERATE range 8-16).

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU0.00.00.0+0.0
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: CONFIRMED OUT on IR (LCL surgery, source: ESPN). Season-ending. Cannot play Week 17. Set to 0.0 pts.

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC17.211.012.1-5.1
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
  • Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 44% MODERATE, 29% BOOM. XGB: 12.6% boom, 42.6% bust (over-predicts bust). MIN has WORST WR defense (#1, 25.2 PPG allowed). DET-MIN 48.5 total. Christmas Day spotlight game. Week 16: 12.0 pts moderate. Selecting BOOM mode for elite matchup. Projection: 18.0 pts (within BOOM range 17-32).

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAR13.918.026.4+12.5
14DAL13.817.317.3+3.5
13GB11.815.126.9+15.1
12NYG12.9-0.0-12.9
11PHI12.6-19.7+7.1
10WSH12.1-23.9+11.8
9MIN11.0-16.6+5.6
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7TB13.2-0.0-13.2
6KC10.7-18.6+7.9
5CIN11.8-2.0-9.8
4CLE10.7-5.7-5.0
3BAL12.9-6.3-6.6
2CHI13.0-18.8+5.8
1GB12.9-6.6-6.3
  • 3-game streak of beating projections
  • Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
  • Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Jayden Reed (GB vs BAL)

Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 66% MODERATE, 24% BUST. XGB: 12.9% boom, 51.5% bust. Jordan Love OUT with concussion. Malik Willis severely limits Reed. Was a solid play with Love but now BUST risk. Projection: 8.0 pts (within BUST range 3-10).

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 66% | BOOM: 10%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN10.0-10.5+0.5
14CHI7.7-9.3+1.6
13DET0.0-0.0+0.0
12MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
11NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
10PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
9CAR0.0-0.0+0.0
8PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
7ARI0.0-0.0+0.0
6CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3CLE0.0-0.0+0.0
2WSH11.3-0.0-11.3
1DET11.2-13.5+2.3
  • Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
  • Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
  • Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

Juwan Johnson (NO vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 45% MODERATE, 30% BOOM, 25% BUST. XGB: 18.8% boom, 56.0% bust (over-predicts bust). Week 16: 16.9 pts BOOM. Carr connection improving late season. TEN vs NO (39.5 total - lower). Selecting upper-MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-12).

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15CAR9.710.07.0-2.7
14TB9.710.07.8-1.9
13MIA8.711.08.9+0.2
12ATL9.3-10.6+1.3
11BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
10CAR8.9-19.2+10.2
9LAR8.3-12.1+3.8
8TB9.6-10.3+0.7
7CHI7.5-12.9+5.4
6NE7.9-1.5-6.4
5NYG7.9-3.7-4.2
4BUF11.1-5.8-5.3
3SEA10.6-11.1+0.5
2SF9.1-15.9+6.8
1ARI7.3-15.6+8.3
  • Averaging 9.5 pts vs 8.4 projected (+13%)
  • Trending down: 7.9 avg (last 3) vs 9.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs BAL

Projections: ESPN 17.3 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21%

Notes: CONFIRMED OUT with concussion (source: NFL.com). Cannot play Week 17. Backup Malik Willis also injured. Set to 0.0 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN14.817.013.9-0.9
14CHI17.618.019.3+1.6
13DET15.718.225.8+10.0
12MIN17.4-7.1-10.4
11NYG16.3-17.7+1.3
10PHI17.0-7.8-9.1
9CAR18.1-9.0-9.1
8PIT17.1-28.3+11.2
7ARI17.4-13.4-4.0
6CIN19.3-15.0-4.4
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL18.6-26.3+7.7
3CLE16.0-11.1-4.9
2WSH17.6-20.9+3.3
1DET14.9-15.9+1.0
  • Trending up: 19.7 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs CIN

Projections: ESPN 12.2 | LLM 12.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 43% MODERATE, 31% BUST, 27% BOOM. XGB: 42.3% boom, 22.4% bust. Heel injury concern. ARI eliminated from playoffs. CIN matchup is good but snap count uncertain. Selecting MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within MODERATE range 8-16).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU0.00.00.0+0.0
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (WR) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%

Notes: CONFIRMED OUT on IR (LCL surgery, source: ESPN). Season-ending. Cannot play Week 17. Set to 0.0 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC17.211.012.1-5.1
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
  • Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Omarion Hampton (RB) - LAC vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58%

Notes: MC: 43% MODERATE, 32% BUST. XGB: 9.0% boom, 57.7% bust. HOU has #1 RB defense (15.0 PPG allowed). Tough matchup. Selecting BUST mode. Projection: 8.0 pts (within BUST range 1.4-8.9).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15KC11.710.07.5-4.2
14PHI12.18.014.7+2.6
13LV0.00.00.0+0.0
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
10PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
9TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
8MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
7IND0.0-0.0+0.0
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH18.6-13.0-5.6
4NYG16.7-27.5+10.8
3DEN12.2-24.9+12.7
2LV15.7-3.5-12.2
1KC14.7-8.1-6.6
  • Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
  • Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Rams D/ST (D/ST) - LAR vs ATL

Projections: ESPN 4.2 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 40% BUST, 39% MODERATE, 22% BOOM. XGB: 10.6% boom, 59.7% bust. LAR @ ATL. Falcons allow 28 TDs (tied-most). LAR -8.5 favorites = likely positive game script. Selecting MODERATE. Projection: 8.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-13).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DET4.24.0-1.0-5.2
14ARI6.99.06.0-0.9
13CAR7.510.01.0-6.5
12TB5.7-20.0+14.3
11SEA5.4-5.0-0.4
10SF6.4-5.0-1.4
9NO8.2-10.0+1.8
7JAX6.7-9.0+2.3
6BAL6.2-16.0+9.8
5SF7.0--2.0-9.0
4IND5.7-6.0+0.3
3PHI5.2-7.0+1.8
2TEN7.4-9.0+1.6
1HOU5.6-12.0+6.4
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 7.4 pts vs 6.3 projected (+17%)
  • Trending down: 2.0 avg (last 3) vs 10.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 20.0 pts in Week 12

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs LV

Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 61% BUST. XGB: 9.6% boom, 60.4% bust. NYG vs LV neutral but inconsistent. Bench depth only. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range -1.0-6.5).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15WSH10.86.02.4-8.4
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (RB) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 70% BUST, 27% MODERATE. XGB: 11.9% boom, 59.9% bust. Rib injury Week 16. Chiefs decimated (-11.5 dogs to DEN). Limited value in playoff week. Selecting BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 1-10).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jayden Reed (WR) - GB vs BAL

Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 66% | BOOM: 10%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52%

Notes: MC: 66% MODERATE, 24% BUST. XGB: 12.9% boom, 51.5% bust. Jordan Love OUT with concussion. Malik Willis severely limits Reed. Was a solid play with Love but now BUST risk. Projection: 8.0 pts (within BUST range 3-10).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN10.0-10.5+0.5
14CHI7.7-9.3+1.6
13DET0.0-0.0+0.0
12MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
11NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
10PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
9CAR0.0-0.0+0.0
8PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
7ARI0.0-0.0+0.0
6CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3CLE0.0-0.0+0.0
2WSH11.3-0.0-11.3
1DET11.2-13.5+2.3
  • Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
  • Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
  • Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

Jaguars D/ST (D/ST): 48% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
Jaguars D/ST D/ST JAX 5.7 9.2 48% 32% 20% HIGH
DK Metcalf WR PIT 13.5 12.7 30% 50% 20% MEDIUM
Kareem Hunt RB KC 11.0 10.3 24% 38% 39% MEDIUM
Baker Mayfield QB TB 16.6 17.1 18% 59% 23% LOW
Trey McBride TE ARI 16.8 17.3 17% 63% 20% LOW
Harrison Butker K KC 8.0 8.3 16% 26% 57% LOW
Rico Dowdle RB CAR 15.2 13.1 14% 59% 27% LOW
Michael Wilson WR ARI 14.1 12.5 8% 36% 56% LOW
Jahmyr Gibbs RB DET 23.9 20.4 7% 23% 70% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Jaguars D/ST: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 42%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 20%)

DK Metcalf: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 30% | Bust 20%)

Kareem Hunt: MC (BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 25%) | XGB (Boom 24% | Bust 39%)

Baker Mayfield: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 52% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 23%)

Trey McBride: MC (BUST: 41% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 20%)

Harrison Butker: MC (BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 25%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 57%)

Rico Dowdle: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 14% | Bust 27%)

Michael Wilson: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 8% | Bust 56%)

Jahmyr Gibbs: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 7% | Bust 70%)

Add/Drop Recommendations

Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

🎯 Priority Pickups (Injury/Opportunity Based)

Championship Finals Week 17 - maximize ceiling, address Jordan Love OUT

#1 Harrison Mevis (K, LAC)
vs vs HOU (Average)
ESPN: 8.0 Trend: HOT DROP: Jayden Reed (Love OUT tanks value)

Myers is solid but Mevis has been hot (30% boom in MC). With Reed's value tanked due to Love OUT, can upgrade kicker for ceiling play. Both kickers project similarly but Mevis trending up.

Week 17: Chargers offense efficient, should get FG opportunities vs HOU

#2 Sam Darnold (QB, SEA)
vs vs LAR (Good (LAR allows solid points to QBs))
ESPN: 13.9 Trend: HOT DROP: Jordan Love

If Brissett disappoints, Darnold is a solid backup option. SEA offense clicking. However, Brissett @ CIN (51.5 total) is still the better play.

Week 17: Good floor QB with rushing upside

#3 Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC)
vs vs DAL (Elite)
ESPN: 9.1 Trend: HOT DROP: Rashee Rice (IR - useless)

Johnston has been on fire (20.4 pts Week 16). DAL matchup is excellent. Can replace Rice's IR roster clog.

Week 17: LAC passing game efficient, Johnston emerging

#4 Hunter Henry (TE, NE)
vs vs BAL (Average)
ESPN: 10.4 Trend: HOT DROP: Devin Singletary

If Juwan Johnson concerns you, Henry is a solid TE2. Week 16: 15.5 pts. Consistent target share with Drake Maye developing.

Week 17: BAL allows middle-of-pack to TEs

⚠️ Players to Avoid

Keenan Allen (WR)
69% BUST in MC, fading role with Johnston emerging
Garrett Wilson (WR)
Jets offense dysfunction, 0.0 pts Week 16
Jayden Daniels (QB)
OUT for Week 17
Cooper Kupp (WR)
On Seahawks now, 46% BUST, inconsistent

📋 Quick Summary

  • ADD Harrison Mevis (K), DROP Jayden Reed - ceiling upgrade at kicker
  • DROP Rashee Rice - IR clog, add Quentin Johnston for upside
  • HOLD Jordan Love on bench - still has playoff value if healthy Week 18

MC-Based Analysis (Auto-Generated)

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (7): Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (36 pts)), Omarion Hampton (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Jayden Reed (Elite ceiling (34 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))
ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,
Boom%47%
Bust%20%
EV12.2
BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (8-20) BOOM: 14% (13-28)
DROP Rashee Rice WR
Boom%25%
Bust%30%
EV0.0
OUT: 100% (0-0)
ADD Jayden Daniels QB,
Boom%34%
Bust%30%
EV0.0
OUT: 100% (0-0)
ADD Evan Engram TE,
Boom%27%
Bust%24%
EV8.0
BUST: 34% (-0-6) MODERATE: 45% (4-13) BOOM: 20% (9-21)
ADD Commanders D/ST D/ST,
Boom%24%
Bust%38%
EV7.8
BUST: 37% (-3-9) MODERATE: 39% (2-14) BOOM: 24% (7-22)
ADD Bears D/ST D/ST,
Boom%20%
Bust%30%
EV8.4
BUST: 32% (-3-9) MODERATE: 44% (2-14) BOOM: 25% (9-24)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
J.K. Dobbins RB 12.2 47% 20% 0.0%
Jayden Daniels QB 0.0 34% 30% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 8.0 27% 24% 0.0%
Commanders D/ST D/ST 7.8 24% 38% 0.0%
Bears D/ST D/ST 8.4 20% 30% 0.0%
Matt Prater K 0.0 19% 54% 0.0%
Cooper Kupp WR 10.1 18% 48% 0.0%
Devin Neal RB 9.6 18% 45% 0.0%
Harrison Mevis K 9.0 16% 48% 0.0%
Dolphins D/ST D/ST 8.4 15% 55% 0.0%
Quentin Johnston WR 12.0 15% 39% 0.0%
Garrett Wilson WR 14.7 15% 48% 0.0%
49ers D/ST D/ST 8.0 14% 51% 0.0%
Rashid Shaheed WR 10.2 14% 53% 0.0%
Sam Darnold QB 15.4 13% 44% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Jayden Daniels 0.0 OUT:100% 34% 30%
Sam Darnold 15.4 BUST:38%, MODERATE:37%, BOOM:25% 13% 44%
Kyler Murray 16.8 BUST:17%, MODERATE:57%, BOOM:26% 11% 54%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 12.2 BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% 47% 20%
Devin Neal 9.6 BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19% 18% 45%
Trey Benson 8.7 BUST:34%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% 12% 57%
Emanuel Wilson 7.7 BUST:55%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:10% 9% 60%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 9.5 BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12% 8% 61%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Cooper Kupp 10.1 BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12% 18% 48%
Quentin Johnston 12.0 BUST:29%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:18% 15% 39%
Garrett Wilson 14.7 BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% 15% 48%
Rashid Shaheed 10.2 BUST:28%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:30% 14% 53%
Keenan Allen 11.6 BUST:69%, MODERATE:22%, BOOM:9% 9% 56%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Evan Engram 8.0 BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20% 27% 24%
Hunter Henry 9.7 BUST:51%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% 8% 62%
Oronde Gadsden 13.7 BOOM:10%, MODERATE:40%, BUST:50% 0% 0%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Matt Prater 0.0 19% 54%
Harrison Mevis 9.0 16% 48%
Evan McPherson 9.6 9% 60%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Commanders D/ST 7.8 24% 38%
Bears D/ST 8.4 20% 30%
Dolphins D/ST 8.4 15% 55%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 17 | Generated: 2025-12-21 23:13

Matchup Summary

55.0%

Win Probability

+11.0
Expected Margin
130.5
My Team (LLM Proj)
120.0
Opponent (Proj)
32.7
Margin Std Dev
120.1
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -42.7 pts | Median: -0.6 pts | Ceiling: +41.4 pts

Margin Distribution

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB MED 22.0 4.3-28.1 ↑15+: 66% | ↓5-: 12% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB HIGH 15.0 5.1-24.0 ↑15+: 40% | ↓5-: 10% Bucky Irving
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 8.0 3.7-24.1 ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 18% Omarion Hampton
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR MED 21.5 6.4-30.3 ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 4% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR HIGH 12.0 3.8-21.5 ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 17% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 18.0 4.2-26.3 ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 14% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 11.0 3.0-16.6 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 22% Juwan Johnson
Chargers D/ST D/ST HIGH 6.0 1.0-18.0 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 27% Chargers D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 10.0 5.4-19.0 ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 7% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 0.0 6.6-27.3 ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 5% Jordan Love
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 12.0 2.6-18.3 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 28% Tyjae Spears
Devin Singletary RB HIGH 6.0 0.6-17.8 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 54% Devin Singletary
Isiah Pacheco RB HIGH 6.0 2.2-15.2 ↑15+: 10% | ↓5-: 43% Isiah Pacheco
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 15.0 4.8-25.1 ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 11% Tetairoa McMillan
Jayden Reed WR HIGH 8.0 3.8-21.6 ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 15% Jayden Reed
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 8.0 1.0-18.4 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 34% Rams D/ST

IR

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Rashee Rice WR LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% Rashee Rice

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Baker Mayfield QB MED 17.1 6.4-27.8 ↑15+: 59% | ↓5-: 5% Baker Mayfield
Jahmyr Gibbs RB HIGH 20.6 7.5-39.6 ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 1% Jahmyr Gibbs
Rico Dowdle RB HIGH 13.1 3.2-27.2 ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 18% Rico Dowdle
Kareem Hunt RB HIGH 10.3 2.4-19.8 ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 28% Kareem Hunt
DK Metcalf WR HIGH 12.7 4.9-22.6 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 10% DK Metcalf
Michael Wilson WR HIGH 12.5 3.2-29.9 ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 27% Michael Wilson
Trey McBride TE MED 17.2 8.2-29.1 ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 0% Trey McBride
Jaguars D/ST D/ST HIGH 9.1 0.5-17.6 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 31% Jaguars D/ST
Harrison Butker K HIGH 8.3 2.9-14.8 ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 26% Harrison Butker

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Aaron Rodgers QB HIGH 14.8 5.8-25.2 ↑15+: 44% | ↓5-: 7% Aaron Rodgers
Michael Carter RB HIGH 8.8 1.2-17.4 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 33% Michael Carter
Rome Odunze WR LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% Rome Odunze
Jordan Addison WR HIGH 12.2 5.4-21.6 ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 8% Jordan Addison
Romeo Doubs WR HIGH 10.3 2.6-19.9 ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 26% Romeo Doubs
Darren Waller TE HIGH 12.2 3.0-23.3 ↑15+: 38% | ↓5-: 27% Darren Waller
Colby Parkinson TE HIGH 9.1 1.8-18.2 ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 32% Colby Parkinson

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 17% @ 24.3 59% @ 14.3 25% @ 5.9 13.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 27% @ 28.7 44% @ 18.4 29% @ 7.6 18.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR 27% @ 20.1 43% @ 12.0 31% @ 5.2 12.1
Omarion Hampton RB 25% @ 23.1 43% @ 12.1 32% @ 5.2 12.6
Jason Myers K 25% @ 18.3 44% @ 11.9 31% @ 6.5 11.8
Juwan Johnson TE 30% @ 14.9 45% @ 8.8 25% @ 3.7 9.4
Jameson Williams WR 29% @ 24.3 44% @ 15.6 28% @ 5.4 15.3
Jacoby Brissett QB 74% @ 21.4 2% @ 14.7 24% @ 6.0 17.5
Chargers D/ST D/ST 36% @ 14.9 42% @ 8.4 22% @ 2.8 9.5

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Chargers D/STD/ST4.26.0BUST55.0%29.8%15.2%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR12.212.0MODERATE42.3%35.3%22.4%
Jordan LoveQB17.30.0BUST26.7%52.3%21.0%
Rashee RiceWR0.00.0BUST24.9%45.3%29.8%
Jason MyersK8.110.0MODERATE23.2%55.1%21.6%
Juwan JohnsonTE9.711.0MODERATE18.8%25.1%56.0%
Tyjae SpearsRB8.712.0MODERATE17.6%44.8%37.6%
Tetairoa McMillanWR13.215.0MODERATE16.9%61.6%21.5%
Jacoby BrissettQB18.722.0BOOM13.5%50.0%36.4%
Bucky IrvingRB15.215.0MODERATE12.9%38.9%48.2%
Jayden ReedWR11.28.0BUST12.9%35.6%51.5%
Jameson WilliamsWR13.918.0BOOM12.6%44.9%42.6%
Isiah PachecoRB9.36.0BUST11.9%28.2%59.9%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR19.921.5BOOM11.4%66.0%22.6%
Rams D/STD/ST4.28.0MODERATE10.6%29.7%59.7%
Devin SingletaryRB7.56.0BUST9.6%30.1%60.4%
Omarion HamptonRB13.28.0BUST9.0%33.3%57.7%

League Standings

Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank Team Record PF (Total) PA (Total) +/- This Week Streak Playoff %
1 Kitty's Piggy Skins 10-5 1993.5 1800.6 +192.9 132.3 vs 124.1 L1 100.0%
2 4th and pinches 10-5 1856.2 1860.5 -4.3 85.1 vs 95.1 W2 100.0%
3 Valued Customers ← 9-6 1917.9 1643.7 +274.2 95.1 vs 85.1 W5 100.0%
4 Ryan's Rowdy Team 8-7 1884.0 1857.2 +26.8 124.1 vs 132.3 W1 100.0%
5 Wookie of the Year 8-7 1867.8 1813.3 +54.5 161.9 vs 81.4 L1 0.0%
6 Meat Pistols 8-7 1596.4 1826.8 -230.4 81.4 vs 161.9 L2 0.0%
7 Torta Pounders Football Club 7-8 1791.8 1811.8 -20.0 61.2 vs 137.1 L2 0.0%
8 Moms rules 7-8 1802.0 1839.7 -37.7 137.1 vs 61.2 W1 0.0%
9 Smooth Roosters 7-8 1769.3 1760.0 +9.2 104.8 vs 113.1 W3 0.0%
10 The Warsaw Pact 6-9 1766.6 1856.8 -90.2 113.1 vs 104.8 W2 0.0%
11 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 6-9 1715.6 1806.9 -91.3 131.6 vs 117.3 L5 0.0%
12 Auto DraftKings 4-11 1815.2 1898.9 -83.8 117.3 vs 131.6 L4 0.0%

Week 17 Matchups

Away TeamScoreScoreHome Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins 132.3 @ 124.1 Ryan's Rowdy Team
4th and pinches 85.1 @ 95.1 Valued Customers
Wookie of the Year 161.9 @ 81.4 Meat Pistols
Torta Pounders Football Club 61.2 @ 137.1 Moms rules
Smooth Roosters 104.8 @ 113.1 The Warsaw Pact
Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 131.6 @ 117.3 Auto DraftKings

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Weekly Team Points

Cumulative Points

Cumulative Team Points

Week 17 Championship Finals Research Analysis

CRITICAL INJURY UPDATES (Verified Dec 21, 2025)

JORDAN LOVE (QB, GB) - OUT (Concussion) - Suffered concussion Week 16 vs Bears, ruled OUT - MAJOR impact on our roster - need backup QB plan - Malik Willis (backup) also banged up - Source: Reddit r/fantasyfootball, NFL.com

RASHEE RICE (WR, KC) - OUT (IR) - Confirmed out for regular season (LCL surgery) - Remove from consideration - Source: Chiefs injury report

LAMAR JACKSON (BAL) - OUT - BAL's starting QB out with back injury - Makes GB defense WEAKER (helps our WR if Love was playing) - Tyler Huntley starting - Source: Ravens beat reporters

MARVIN HARRISON JR. (WR, ARI) - ACTIVE - Returned Week 16 from heel injury - Cardinals eliminated from playoffs - may see limited snaps - Elite matchup vs CIN (5th-worst vs QB)

VEGAS LINES ANALYSIS

Game Total Spread Key Insight
GB @ BAL 46.5 GB -5.5 High-scoring, but Love OUT changes everything
ARI @ CIN 51.5 CIN -6.0 HIGHEST TOTAL - shootout expected, Brissett/MHJ benefit
SEA vs CAR 43.5 SEA -7.5 Good spot for JSN, Myers
TB vs MIA 46.5 TB -4.5 Bucky Irving solid floor game
DET @ MIN 48.5 DET -3.5 Christmas Day shootout, JWill upside
TEN vs NO 39.5 NO -1.5 Lower total, Spears/Juwan average
LAC vs HOU 40.0 HOU -1.5 Hampton tough matchup vs best RB defense
KC vs DEN 36.5 DEN -11.5 Chiefs decimated, Pacheco limited value
LAR @ ATL 48.5 LAR -8.5 Rams D/ST upside vs struggling Falcons
NYG vs LV 42.5 NYG -3.0 Singletary neutral matchup

DEFENSE MATCHUP TIERS

ELITE MATCHUPS (Target) - MIN vs WR: #1 worst (25.2 PPG) → Jameson Williams BOOM potential - CIN vs QB: #5 worst (18.9 PPG) → Brissett excellent spot - NO vs RB: #7 worst (20.6 PPG) → Spears solid floor - BAL vs WR: #5 worst (23.5 PPG) → Jayden Reed (if Love was playing)

TOUGH MATCHUPS (Downgrade) - HOU vs RB: #1 best (15.0 PPG) → Hampton BUST risk - DEN vs RB: #20 (16.2 PPG) → Pacheco challenging - BAL vs QB: #7 best (17.8 PPG) → Love would've struggled (now moot)

NEUTRAL - MIA vs RB: #15 → Bucky Irving standard game - CAR vs WR: #11 → JSN solid - LV vs RB: #14 → Singletary average

QB DECISION: BRISSETT vs LOVE

With Love OUT, this is now decided: - START: Jacoby Brissett (ARI) @ CIN - CIN allows 5th-most fantasy points to QBs - Game total 51.5 (highest of the week) - 74% historical BOOM probability in MC density - MHJ, McMillan as weapons

  • BENCH: Jordan Love (OUT - Concussion)

GAME STACKING CORRELATIONS

ARI @ CIN (Our Exposure: Brissett, MHJ, McMillan) - 51.5 game total = shootout expected - All three benefit from high-scoring environment - POSITIVE correlation: QB success = WR success

DET @ MIN (Our Exposure: Jameson Williams) - 48.5 game total, DET -3.5 - Williams vs MIN (#1 worst vs WR) - Amon-Ra St. Brown may draw coverage, opens Williams

FINAL CONFIDENCE TIERS

LOCKED-IN STARTERS: 1. Jacoby Brissett (QB) - Elite CIN matchup, 51.5 total 2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR) - SEA WR1, favorable CAR matchup 3. Bucky Irving (RB) - TB bellcow, solid floor 4. Jameson Williams (WR) - MIN worst WR defense 5. Juwan Johnson (TE) - Week 16 boom (16.9 pts), continue riding

SOLID STARTERS: 6. Tyjae Spears (RB) - Week 16 boom (21.5 pts), NO allows 7th-most to RBs 7. Tetairoa McMillan (WR/FLEX) - CIN shootout, rookie upside 8. Jason Myers (K) - SEA K, CAR allows 31 PPG

QUESTIONABLE/BENCH: - Marvin Harrison Jr. - Heel concerns, ARI eliminated - Omarion Hampton - HOU #1 RB defense - Jayden Reed - Love OUT kills his value - Jordan Love - OUT (concussion)

DO NOT PLAY: - Rashee Rice - OUT (IR) - Isiah Pacheco - Chiefs decimated, rib injury

Reddit Insights

Hot Topics

Positive Buzz: Bucky Irving, Jameson Williams, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Negative Buzz: Jordan Love, Rashee Rice, Jayden Reed (without Love)

Mixed Buzz: Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel), Omarion Hampton (matchup)

Sources

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

No Debates Yet

Run /debate "Your question" to start a Crystal Society debate.

Examples:

  • "Should I start Player A over Player B?"
  • "Is this FA worth picking up?"
  • "What's the boom/bust outlook for Player X?"

Week 17 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

5.4
Our Team MAE
17 players
5.1
Opponent MAE
9 players
26
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 5.3
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 18.7 22.0 10.6 -11.4
Opponent RB Kareem Hunt 11.0 - 0.2 -10.8
Opponent TE Trey McBride 16.8 - 6.7 -10.1
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 12.2 12.0 2.4 -9.6
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.7 12.0 21.5 +9.5
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 13.2 8.0 16.5 +8.5
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.1 10.0 2.0 -8.0
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 15.0 7.1 -7.9
Our Team RB Isiah Pacheco 9.3 6.0 13.5 +7.5
Opponent RB Rico Dowdle 15.2 - 8.3 -6.9
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.9 18.0 12.0 -6.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.7 11.0 16.9 +5.9
Opponent WR DK Metcalf 13.5 - 8.2 -5.3
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.2 15.0 19.3 +4.3
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 4.2 8.0 4.0 -4.0
Opponent QB Baker Mayfield 16.6 - 12.7 -3.9
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.3 0.0 3.8 +3.8
Opponent D/ST Jaguars D/ST 5.7 - 2.0 -3.7
Opponent K Harrison Butker 8.0 - 11.0 +3.0
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 19.9 21.5 23.6 +2.1
Our Team D/ST Chargers D/ST 4.2 6.0 4.0 -2.0
Opponent RB Jahmyr Gibbs 23.9 - 22.8 -1.1
Opponent WR Michael Wilson 14.1 - 13.2 -0.9
Our Team WR Jayden Reed 11.2 8.0 7.1 -0.9
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 7.5 6.0 5.6 -0.4
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0

Week 16 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)

6.2
Our Team MAE
17 players
4.3
Opponent MAE
9 players
6.6
Free Agent MAE
6 players
32
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 5.7
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Free Agent K Ka'imi Fairbairn 0.0 - 16.0 +16.0
Free Agent RB Isiah Pacheco 0.0 - 13.5 +13.5
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.7 10.0 21.5 +11.5
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.4 15.0 3.8 -11.2
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 18.8 21.0 10.6 -10.4
Opponent TE Trey McBride 16.8 - 6.7 -10.1
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 15.9 22.0 12.0 -10.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 14.2 12.0 2.4 -9.6
Our Team D/ST Chargers D/ST 4.2 12.0 4.0 -8.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.1 9.0 16.9 +7.9
Our Team RB Isiah Pacheco 9.1 6.0 13.5 +7.5
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 14.0 7.1 -6.9
Opponent RB Rico Dowdle 15.2 - 8.3 -6.9
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.1 13.0 19.3 +6.3
Our Team WR Jayden Reed 11.2 13.0 7.1 -5.9
Opponent WR DK Metcalf 13.5 - 8.2 -5.3
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.8 5.0 0.0 -5.0
Free Agent D/ST Patriots D/ST 0.0 - 5.0 +5.0
Opponent RB Michael Carter 11.0 - 6.5 -4.5
Free Agent D/ST Chargers D/ST 0.0 - 4.0 +4.0
Opponent QB Baker Mayfield 16.6 - 12.7 -3.9
Opponent D/ST Jaguars D/ST 5.6 - 2.0 -3.6
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 13.2 13.0 16.5 +3.5
Opponent K Harrison Butker 8.0 - 11.0 +3.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 7.5 4.0 5.6 +1.6
Opponent RB Jahmyr Gibbs 23.8 - 22.8 -1.0
Free Agent D/ST Chiefs D/ST 0.0 - 1.0 +1.0
Opponent WR Michael Wilson 13.4 - 13.2 -0.2
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 19.9 23.6 23.6 +0.0
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.1 2.0 2.0 +0.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 5.7 4.0 4.0 +0.0
Free Agent K Eddy Pineiro 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_projection_accuracy_overall.png llm_projection_accuracy_by_position.png llm_projection_error_distribution.png llm_projection_accuracy_trend.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 17 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.

Jordan Love (QB)
Jordan Love distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 17.3 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
53%
BOOM
21%
10th percentile 6.7 pts
Median (50th) 15.6 pts
90th percentile 27.5 pts
MC (Historical)
21% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
27% BOOM
Bucky Irving (RB)
Bucky Irving distribution
LLM 15.0 pts
ESPN 15.2 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
58%
BOOM
17%
10th percentile 5.0 pts
Median (50th) 13.3 pts
90th percentile 23.8 pts
MC (Historical)
17% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba distribution
LLM 21.5 pts
ESPN 19.9 pts
BUST
29%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 6.4 pts
Median (50th) 18.1 pts
90th percentile 30.4 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)
Tetairoa McMillan distribution
LLM 15.0 pts
ESPN 13.2 pts
BUST
49%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 4.9 pts
Median (50th) 10.2 pts
90th percentile 25.5 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
17% BOOM
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)
Marvin Harrison Jr. distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 12.2 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 11.1 pts
90th percentile 21.8 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
42% BOOM
Rashee Rice (WR)
Rashee Rice distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
OUT
100%
10th percentile 0.0 pts
Median (50th) 0.0 pts
90th percentile 0.0 pts
MC (Historical)
0% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
25% BOOM
Tyjae Spears (RB)
Tyjae Spears distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 8.7 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
61%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 2.6 pts
Median (50th) 7.6 pts
90th percentile 18.1 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
Omarion Hampton (RB)
Omarion Hampton distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 13.2 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 3.6 pts
Median (50th) 10.9 pts
90th percentile 24.2 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jason Myers (K)
Jason Myers distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 8.1 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 5.4 pts
Median (50th) 11.4 pts
90th percentile 19.0 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
23% BOOM
Juwan Johnson (TE)
Juwan Johnson distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN 9.7 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
30%
10th percentile 2.9 pts
Median (50th) 8.8 pts
90th percentile 16.6 pts
MC (Historical)
30% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
19% BOOM
Jameson Williams (WR)
Jameson Williams distribution
LLM 18.0 pts
ESPN 13.9 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 4.2 pts
Median (50th) 15.2 pts
90th percentile 26.0 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Rams D/ST (D/ST)
Rams D/ST distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 4.2 pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 1.1 pts
Median (50th) 7.7 pts
90th percentile 18.4 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Devin Singletary (RB)
Devin Singletary distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 7.5 pts
BUST
61%
MODERATE
21%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 0.7 pts
Median (50th) 4.4 pts
90th percentile 18.1 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Jacoby Brissett (QB)
Jacoby Brissett distribution
LLM 22.0 pts
ESPN 18.7 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
2%
BOOM
74%
10th percentile 4.3 pts
Median (50th) 18.3 pts
90th percentile 28.3 pts
MC (Historical)
74% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Chargers D/ST (D/ST)
Chargers D/ST distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 4.2 pts
BUST
22%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
36%
10th percentile 1.0 pts
Median (50th) 8.9 pts
90th percentile 17.8 pts
MC (Historical)
36% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
55% BOOM
Isiah Pacheco (RB)
Isiah Pacheco distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 9.3 pts
BUST
70%
MODERATE
27%
BOOM
3%
10th percentile 2.2 pts
Median (50th) 5.7 pts
90th percentile 15.3 pts
MC (Historical)
3% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Jayden Reed (WR)
Jayden Reed distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 11.2 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
66%
BOOM
10%
10th percentile 3.8 pts
Median (50th) 10.5 pts
90th percentile 22.0 pts
MC (Historical)
10% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB)
Jahmyr Gibbs distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 23.9 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
24%
10th percentile 7.4 pts
Median (50th) 18.0 pts
90th percentile 39.2 pts
MC (Historical)
24% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
7% BOOM
Trey McBride (TE)
Trey McBride distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 16.8 pts
BUST
41%
MODERATE
33%
BOOM
26%
10th percentile 8.2 pts
Median (50th) 15.9 pts
90th percentile 29.4 pts
MC (Historical)
26% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
17% BOOM
DK Metcalf (WR)
DK Metcalf distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 13.5 pts
BUST
39%
MODERATE
40%
BOOM
21%
10th percentile 4.9 pts
Median (50th) 11.4 pts
90th percentile 22.3 pts
MC (Historical)
21% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
30% BOOM
Michael Wilson (WR)
Michael Wilson distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 14.1 pts
BUST
55%
MODERATE
29%
BOOM
16%
10th percentile 3.3 pts
Median (50th) 8.6 pts
90th percentile 30.2 pts
MC (Historical)
16% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
8% BOOM
Baker Mayfield (QB)
Baker Mayfield distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 16.6 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
52%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 6.3 pts
Median (50th) 17.0 pts
90th percentile 27.8 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
Rico Dowdle (RB)
Rico Dowdle distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 15.2 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
57%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 3.3 pts
Median (50th) 11.2 pts
90th percentile 27.1 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Kareem Hunt (RB)
Kareem Hunt distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 11.0 pts
BUST
38%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 2.4 pts
Median (50th) 9.2 pts
90th percentile 20.1 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
24% BOOM
Jaguars D/ST (D/ST)
Jaguars D/ST distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 5.7 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
34%
BOOM
42%
10th percentile 0.5 pts
Median (50th) 8.7 pts
90th percentile 17.9 pts
MC (Historical)
42% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
48% BOOM
Harrison Butker (K)
Harrison Butker distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 8.0 pts
BUST
29%
MODERATE
46%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 2.9 pts
Median (50th) 7.6 pts
90th percentile 14.7 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
16% BOOM