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LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | CIN | 18.7 | 22.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | MIA | 15.2 | 15.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Tyjae Spears | NO | 8.7 | 12.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | CAR | 19.9 | 21.5 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jameson Williams | MIN | 13.9 | 18.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | TEN | 9.7 | 11.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Tetairoa McMillan | SEA | 13.2 | 15.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | CAR | 8.1 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| D/ST | Chargers D/ST | HOU | 4.2 | 6.0 | BUST | MEDIUM |
Championship Finals Week 17 - maximize ceiling, address Jordan Love OUT
Myers is solid but Mevis has been hot (30% boom in MC). With Reed's value tanked due to Love OUT, can upgrade kicker for ceiling play. Both kickers pr...
If Brissett disappoints, Darnold is a solid backup option. SEA offense clicking. However, Brissett @ CIN (51.5 total) is still the better play.
Johnston has been on fire (20.4 pts Week 16). DAL matchup is excellent. Can replace Rice's IR roster clog.
⚠️ Avoid: Keenan Allen, Garrett Wilson, Jayden Daniels, Cooper Kupp
See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.
Championship Finals Week 17 against Kitty's Piggy Skins (10-5, #1 seed). Jordan Love is OUT with concussion, so Jacoby Brissett starts at QB in an elite matchup vs CIN (51.5 game total, highest of the week). Key starters: JSN, Jameson Williams, Bucky Irving, Tyjae Spears. McMillan gets the FLEX nod over MHJ due to heel concerns. CHARGERS D/ST over Rams per debate (35.9% boom vs 21.7%). Projected: 130.5 pts.
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | ✓ 10.6 | 18.7 | 22.0 | -11.4 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | ✓ 7.1 | 15.2 | 15.0 | -7.9 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | ✓ 16.5 | 13.2 | 8.0 | +8.5 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | WR | ✓ 12.0 | 15.9 | 18.0 | -6.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | ✓ 23.6 | 19.9 | 21.5 | +2.1 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | ✓ 16.9 | 9.1 | 11.0 | +5.9 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | RB/WR/TE | ✓ 2.4 | 12.2 | 12.0 | -9.6 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | ✓ 2.0 | 8.1 | 10.0 | -8.0 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | ✓ 4.0 | 4.2 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| Devin Singletary (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 5.6 | 7.5 | 6.0 | -0.4 |
| Isiah Pacheco (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 13.5 | 9.3 | 6.0 | +7.5 |
| Jayden Reed (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 7.1 | 11.2 | 8.0 | -0.9 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | ✓ 3.8 | 17.3 | --- | -13.5 |
| Rams D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | ✓ 4.0 | 5.6 | 8.0 | -4.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 19.3 | 13.1 | 15.0 | +4.3 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 21.5 | 8.7 | 12.0 | +9.5 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice (bench) | WR | IR | 0.0 | --- |
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | QB | ✓ 12.7 | 16.6 | --- | -3.9 |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | RB | ✓ 0.2 | 11.0 | --- | -10.8 |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | RB | ✓ 8.3 | 15.2 | --- | -6.9 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | WR | ✓ 8.2 | 13.5 | --- | -5.3 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | WR | ✓ 13.2 | 14.1 | --- | -0.9 |
| Trey McBride | TE | TE | ✓ 6.7 | 16.8 | --- | -10.1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | RB/WR/TE | ✓ 22.8 | 23.9 | --- | -1.1 |
| Harrison Butker | K | K | ✓ 11.0 | 8.0 | --- | +3.0 |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | ✓ 2.0 | 5.7 | --- | -3.7 |
| Aaron Rodgers (bench) | QB | BE | ✓ 15.5 | 14.8 | --- | +0.7 |
| Colby Parkinson (bench) | TE | BE | ✓ 4.1 | 9.6 | --- | -5.5 |
| Darren Waller (bench) | TE | BE | ✓ 7.0 | 9.3 | --- | -2.3 |
| Jordan Addison (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 4.6 | 10.5 | --- | -5.9 |
| Michael Carter (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 6.5 | 11.0 | --- | -4.5 |
| Romeo Doubs (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 19.4 | 9.6 | --- | +9.8 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rome Odunze (bench) | WR | BE | 0.0 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 17.3 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: CONFIRMED OUT with concussion (source: NFL.com). Cannot play Week 17. Backup Malik Willis also injured. Set to 0.0 pts.
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 14.8 | 17.0 | 13.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 18.7 | LLM 22.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 74% BOOM (historical pattern shows high ceiling). XGB: 13.5% boom, 36.4% bust (model underestimates). CIN allows 5th-most fantasy points to QBs (18.9 PPG). 51.5 game total is HIGHEST of the week. With MHJ and McMillan as weapons in shootout conditions, selecting BOOM mode. Projection: 22.0 pts (within BOOM range 17-29).
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 13.9 | 16.0 | 20.6 | +6.7 |
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 59% MODERATE, 25% BUST. XGB: 12.9% boom, 48.2% bust (over-predicts bust). TB bellcow vs MIA (#15 vs RB). Week 16: 7.1 pts underperformed but solid usage. Game total 46.5 supports scoring. Selecting MODERATE mode. Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-19).
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | ATL | 15.2 | 14.0 | 8.1 | -7.1 |
| 14 | NO | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | -0.3 |
| 13 | ARI | 11.8 | 12.0 | 16.1 | +4.3 |
| 12 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | NE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | NO | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | PHI | 17.5 | - | 25.5 | +8.0 |
| 3 | NYJ | 17.9 | - | 13.9 | -4.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 15.9 | - | 18.1 | +2.2 |
| 1 | ATL | 17.3 | - | 14.5 | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 61% MODERATE, 25% BUST. XGB: 17.6% boom, 37.6% bust. Week 16 BOOMED with 21.5 pts. NO allows 7th-most to RBs. Haskins out elevated role. Selecting upper-MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-14).
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE, 32% BUST. XGB: 9.0% boom, 57.7% bust. HOU has #1 RB defense (15.0 PPG allowed). Tough matchup. Selecting BUST mode. Projection: 8.0 pts (within BUST range 1.4-8.9).
MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 11.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | -4.2 |
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 18.6 | - | 13.0 | -5.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 16.7 | - | 27.5 | +10.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.2 | - | 24.9 | +12.7 |
| 2 | LV | 15.7 | - | 3.5 | -12.2 |
| 1 | KC | 14.7 | - | 8.1 | -6.6 |
Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 61% BUST. XGB: 9.6% boom, 60.4% bust. NYG vs LV neutral but inconsistent. Bench depth only. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range -1.0-6.5).
MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | WSH | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | -8.4 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 70% BUST, 27% MODERATE. XGB: 11.9% boom, 59.9% bust. Rib injury Week 16. Chiefs decimated (-11.5 dogs to DEN). Limited value in playoff week. Selecting BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 1-10).
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 19.9 | LLM 21.5 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 44% MODERATE, 29% BUST, 27% BOOM. XGB: 11.4% boom, 22.6% bust. SEA WR1 vs CAR (#11 vs WR). Week 16: 23.6 pts BOOM. Consistent target share. Selecting BOOM mode. Projection: 21.5 pts (within BOOM range 21.2-36.2).
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 20.6 | 22.0 | 18.3 | -2.3 |
| 14 | ATL | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +7.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 21.9 | 24.0 | 4.3 | -17.6 |
| 12 | TEN | 21.3 | - | 37.1 | +15.8 |
| 11 | LAR | 23.0 | - | 20.6 | -2.4 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0 | - | 20.3 | -1.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 24.5 | - | 22.0 | -2.5 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 20.0 | - | 26.3 | +6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 17.9 | - | 30.2 | +12.3 |
| 5 | TB | 15.9 | - | 27.2 | +11.3 |
| 4 | ARI | 16.4 | - | 13.0 | -3.4 |
| 3 | NO | 15.5 | - | 20.6 | +5.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 14.4 | - | 18.3 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 14.7 | - | 19.4 | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 49% BUST, 37% MODERATE, 14% BOOM. XGB: 16.9% boom, 21.5% bust. ARI @ CIN (51.5 total). Rookie WR with Brissett chemistry. Week 16: 19.3 pts BOOM. Selecting upper-MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 10-20).
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.5 | -8.7 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 12.2 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE, 31% BUST, 27% BOOM. XGB: 42.3% boom, 22.4% bust. Heel injury concern. ARI eliminated from playoffs. CIN matchup is good but snap count uncertain. Selecting MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within MODERATE range 8-16).
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: CONFIRMED OUT on IR (LCL surgery, source: ESPN). Season-ending. Cannot play Week 17. Set to 0.0 pts.
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 44% MODERATE, 29% BOOM. XGB: 12.6% boom, 42.6% bust (over-predicts bust). MIN has WORST WR defense (#1, 25.2 PPG allowed). DET-MIN 48.5 total. Christmas Day spotlight game. Week 16: 12.0 pts moderate. Selecting BOOM mode for elite matchup. Projection: 18.0 pts (within BOOM range 17-32).
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAR | 13.9 | 18.0 | 26.4 | +12.5 |
| 14 | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +3.5 |
| 13 | GB | 11.8 | 15.1 | 26.9 | +15.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 12.9 | - | 0.0 | -12.9 |
| 11 | PHI | 12.6 | - | 19.7 | +7.1 |
| 10 | WSH | 12.1 | - | 23.9 | +11.8 |
| 9 | MIN | 11.0 | - | 16.6 | +5.6 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | TB | 13.2 | - | 0.0 | -13.2 |
| 6 | KC | 10.7 | - | 18.6 | +7.9 |
| 5 | CIN | 11.8 | - | 2.0 | -9.8 |
| 4 | CLE | 10.7 | - | 5.7 | -5.0 |
| 3 | BAL | 12.9 | - | 6.3 | -6.6 |
| 2 | CHI | 13.0 | - | 18.8 | +5.8 |
| 1 | GB | 12.9 | - | 6.6 | -6.3 |
Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 66% MODERATE, 24% BUST. XGB: 12.9% boom, 51.5% bust. Jordan Love OUT with concussion. Malik Willis severely limits Reed. Was a solid play with Love but now BUST risk. Projection: 8.0 pts (within BUST range 3-10).
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 66% | BOOM: 10%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 10.0 | - | 10.5 | +0.5 |
| 14 | CHI | 7.7 | - | 9.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | ARI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | CLE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | WSH | 11.3 | - | 0.0 | -11.3 |
| 1 | DET | 11.2 | - | 13.5 | +2.3 |
Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 45% MODERATE, 30% BOOM, 25% BUST. XGB: 18.8% boom, 56.0% bust (over-predicts bust). Week 16: 16.9 pts BOOM. Carr connection improving late season. TEN vs NO (39.5 total - lower). Selecting upper-MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-12).
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%
XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CAR | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.0 | -2.7 |
| 14 | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -1.9 |
| 13 | MIA | 8.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | +0.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 9.3 | - | 10.6 | +1.3 |
| 11 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 8.9 | - | 19.2 | +10.2 |
| 9 | LAR | 8.3 | - | 12.1 | +3.8 |
| 8 | TB | 9.6 | - | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 | CHI | 7.5 | - | 12.9 | +5.4 |
| 6 | NE | 7.9 | - | 1.5 | -6.4 |
| 5 | NYG | 7.9 | - | 3.7 | -4.2 |
| 4 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 3 | SEA | 10.6 | - | 11.1 | +0.5 |
| 2 | SF | 9.1 | - | 15.9 | +6.8 |
| 1 | ARI | 7.3 | - | 15.6 | +8.3 |
Projections: ESPN 17.3 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21%
Notes: CONFIRMED OUT with concussion (source: NFL.com). Cannot play Week 17. Backup Malik Willis also injured. Set to 0.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 14.8 | 17.0 | 13.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 12.2 | LLM 12.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22%
Notes: MC: 43% MODERATE, 31% BUST, 27% BOOM. XGB: 42.3% boom, 22.4% bust. Heel injury concern. ARI eliminated from playoffs. CIN matchup is good but snap count uncertain. Selecting MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within MODERATE range 8-16).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%
Notes: CONFIRMED OUT on IR (LCL surgery, source: ESPN). Season-ending. Cannot play Week 17. Set to 0.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58%
Notes: MC: 43% MODERATE, 32% BUST. XGB: 9.0% boom, 57.7% bust. HOU has #1 RB defense (15.0 PPG allowed). Tough matchup. Selecting BUST mode. Projection: 8.0 pts (within BUST range 1.4-8.9).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 11.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | -4.2 |
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 18.6 | - | 13.0 | -5.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 16.7 | - | 27.5 | +10.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.2 | - | 24.9 | +12.7 |
| 2 | LV | 15.7 | - | 3.5 | -12.2 |
| 1 | KC | 14.7 | - | 8.1 | -6.6 |
Projections: ESPN 4.2 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 60%
Notes: MC: 40% BUST, 39% MODERATE, 22% BOOM. XGB: 10.6% boom, 59.7% bust. LAR @ ATL. Falcons allow 28 TDs (tied-most). LAR -8.5 favorites = likely positive game script. Selecting MODERATE. Projection: 8.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-13).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DET | 4.2 | 4.0 | -1.0 | -5.2 |
| 14 | ARI | 6.9 | 9.0 | 6.0 | -0.9 |
| 13 | CAR | 7.5 | 10.0 | 1.0 | -6.5 |
| 12 | TB | 5.7 | - | 20.0 | +14.3 |
| 11 | SEA | 5.4 | - | 5.0 | -0.4 |
| 10 | SF | 6.4 | - | 5.0 | -1.4 |
| 9 | NO | 8.2 | - | 10.0 | +1.8 |
| 7 | JAX | 6.7 | - | 9.0 | +2.3 |
| 6 | BAL | 6.2 | - | 16.0 | +9.8 |
| 5 | SF | 7.0 | - | -2.0 | -9.0 |
| 4 | IND | 5.7 | - | 6.0 | +0.3 |
| 3 | PHI | 5.2 | - | 7.0 | +1.8 |
| 2 | TEN | 7.4 | - | 9.0 | +1.6 |
| 1 | HOU | 5.6 | - | 12.0 | +6.4 |
Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60%
Notes: MC: 61% BUST. XGB: 9.6% boom, 60.4% bust. NYG vs LV neutral but inconsistent. Bench depth only. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range -1.0-6.5).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | WSH | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | -8.4 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%
Notes: MC: 70% BUST, 27% MODERATE. XGB: 11.9% boom, 59.9% bust. Rib injury Week 16. Chiefs decimated (-11.5 dogs to DEN). Limited value in playoff week. Selecting BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 1-10).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 66% | BOOM: 10%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52%
Notes: MC: 66% MODERATE, 24% BUST. XGB: 12.9% boom, 51.5% bust. Jordan Love OUT with concussion. Malik Willis severely limits Reed. Was a solid play with Love but now BUST risk. Projection: 8.0 pts (within BUST range 3-10).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 10.0 | - | 10.5 | +0.5 |
| 14 | CHI | 7.7 | - | 9.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | ARI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | CLE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | WSH | 11.3 | - | 0.0 | -11.3 |
| 1 | DET | 11.2 | - | 13.5 | +2.3 |
Jaguars D/ST (D/ST): 48% boom probability
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | JAX | 5.7 | 9.2 | 48% | 32% | 20% | HIGH | |
| DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | 13.5 | 12.7 | 30% | 50% | 20% | MEDIUM | |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | KC | 11.0 | 10.3 | 24% | 38% | 39% | MEDIUM | |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | 16.6 | 17.1 | 18% | 59% | 23% | LOW | |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARI | 16.8 | 17.3 | 17% | 63% | 20% | LOW | |
| Harrison Butker | K | KC | 8.0 | 8.3 | 16% | 26% | 57% | LOW | |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | CAR | 15.2 | 13.1 | 14% | 59% | 27% | LOW | |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | 14.1 | 12.5 | 8% | 36% | 56% | LOW | |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 23.9 | 20.4 | 7% | 23% | 70% | LOW |
Jaguars D/ST: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 42%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 20%)
DK Metcalf: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 30% | Bust 20%)
Kareem Hunt: MC (BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 25%) | XGB (Boom 24% | Bust 39%)
Baker Mayfield: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 52% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 23%)
Trey McBride: MC (BUST: 41% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 20%)
Harrison Butker: MC (BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 25%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 57%)
Rico Dowdle: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 14% | Bust 27%)
Michael Wilson: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 8% | Bust 56%)
Jahmyr Gibbs: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 7% | Bust 70%)
Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster
Championship Finals Week 17 - maximize ceiling, address Jordan Love OUT
Myers is solid but Mevis has been hot (30% boom in MC). With Reed's value tanked due to Love OUT, can upgrade kicker for ceiling play. Both kickers project similarly but Mevis trending up.
Week 17: Chargers offense efficient, should get FG opportunities vs HOU
If Brissett disappoints, Darnold is a solid backup option. SEA offense clicking. However, Brissett @ CIN (51.5 total) is still the better play.
Week 17: Good floor QB with rushing upside
Johnston has been on fire (20.4 pts Week 16). DAL matchup is excellent. Can replace Rice's IR roster clog.
Week 17: LAC passing game efficient, Johnston emerging
If Juwan Johnson concerns you, Henry is a solid TE2. Week 16: 15.5 pts. Consistent target share with Drake Maye developing.
Week 17: BAL allows middle-of-pack to TEs
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 12.2 | 47% | 20% | 0.0% | |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | 0.0 | 34% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 8.0 | 27% | 24% | 0.0% | |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | 7.8 | 24% | 38% | 0.0% | |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | 8.4 | 20% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Matt Prater | K | 0.0 | 19% | 54% | 0.0% | |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 10.1 | 18% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Devin Neal | RB | 9.6 | 18% | 45% | 0.0% | |
| Harrison Mevis | K | 9.0 | 16% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | D/ST | 8.4 | 15% | 55% | 0.0% | |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | 12.0 | 15% | 39% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.7 | 15% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| 49ers D/ST | D/ST | 8.0 | 14% | 51% | 0.0% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | 10.2 | 14% | 53% | 0.0% | |
| Sam Darnold | QB | 15.4 | 13% | 44% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 0.0 | OUT:100% | 34% | 30% | |
| Sam Darnold | 15.4 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:37%, BOOM:25% | 13% | 44% | |
| Kyler Murray | 16.8 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:57%, BOOM:26% | 11% | 54% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 12.2 | BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% | 47% | 20% | |
| Devin Neal | 9.6 | BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19% | 18% | 45% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.7 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% | 12% | 57% | |
| Emanuel Wilson | 7.7 | BUST:55%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:10% | 9% | 60% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 9.5 | BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12% | 8% | 61% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 10.1 | BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12% | 18% | 48% | |
| Quentin Johnston | 12.0 | BUST:29%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:18% | 15% | 39% | |
| Garrett Wilson | 14.7 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% | 15% | 48% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | 10.2 | BUST:28%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:30% | 14% | 53% | |
| Keenan Allen | 11.6 | BUST:69%, MODERATE:22%, BOOM:9% | 9% | 56% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 8.0 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20% | 27% | 24% | |
| Hunter Henry | 9.7 | BUST:51%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% | 8% | 62% | |
| Oronde Gadsden | 13.7 | BOOM:10%, MODERATE:40%, BUST:50% | 0% | 0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Prater | 0.0 | 19% | 54% | |
| Harrison Mevis | 9.0 | 16% | 48% | |
| Evan McPherson | 9.6 | 9% | 60% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders D/ST | 7.8 | 24% | 38% | |
| Bears D/ST | 8.4 | 20% | 30% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | 8.4 | 15% | 55% |
Win Probability
Floor: -42.7 pts | Median: -0.6 pts | Ceiling: +41.4 pts
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 22.0 | 4.3-28.1 | ↑15+: 66% | ↓5-: 12% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | HIGH | 15.0 | 5.1-24.0 | ↑15+: 40% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 8.0 | 3.7-24.1 | ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 18% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | MED | 21.5 | 6.4-30.3 | ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 12.0 | 3.8-21.5 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 18.0 | 4.2-26.3 | ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 11.0 | 3.0-16.6 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 22% | |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.0 | 1.0-18.0 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 10.0 | 5.4-19.0 | ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 7% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 0.0 | 6.6-27.3 | ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 12.0 | 2.6-18.3 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| Devin Singletary | RB | HIGH | 6.0 | 0.6-17.8 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 54% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | HIGH | 6.0 | 2.2-15.2 | ↑15+: 10% | ↓5-: 43% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 15.0 | 4.8-25.1 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Jayden Reed | WR | HIGH | 8.0 | 3.8-21.6 | ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 15% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 8.0 | 1.0-18.4 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 34% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | WR | LOW | 0.0 | 0.0-0.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | MED | 17.1 | 6.4-27.8 | ↑15+: 59% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | HIGH | 20.6 | 7.5-39.6 | ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 1% | |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | HIGH | 13.1 | 3.2-27.2 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 18% | |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | HIGH | 10.3 | 2.4-19.8 | ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| DK Metcalf | WR | HIGH | 12.7 | 4.9-22.6 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Michael Wilson | WR | HIGH | 12.5 | 3.2-29.9 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Trey McBride | TE | MED | 17.2 | 8.2-29.1 | ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 9.1 | 0.5-17.6 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 31% | |
| Harrison Butker | K | HIGH | 8.3 | 2.9-14.8 | ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 26% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | HIGH | 14.8 | 5.8-25.2 | ↑15+: 44% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| Michael Carter | RB | HIGH | 8.8 | 1.2-17.4 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 33% | |
| Rome Odunze | WR | LOW | 0.0 | 0.0-0.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% | |
| Jordan Addison | WR | HIGH | 12.2 | 5.4-21.6 | ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 8% | |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | HIGH | 10.3 | 2.6-19.9 | ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| Darren Waller | TE | HIGH | 12.2 | 3.0-23.3 | ↑15+: 38% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Colby Parkinson | TE | HIGH | 9.1 | 1.8-18.2 | ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 32% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 17% @ 24.3 | 59% @ 14.3 | 25% @ 5.9 | 13.9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 27% @ 28.7 | 44% @ 18.4 | 29% @ 7.6 | 18.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 27% @ 20.1 | 43% @ 12.0 | 31% @ 5.2 | 12.1 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 25% @ 23.1 | 43% @ 12.1 | 32% @ 5.2 | 12.6 |
| Jason Myers | K | 25% @ 18.3 | 44% @ 11.9 | 31% @ 6.5 | 11.8 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 30% @ 14.9 | 45% @ 8.8 | 25% @ 3.7 | 9.4 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 29% @ 24.3 | 44% @ 15.6 | 28% @ 5.4 | 15.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 74% @ 21.4 | 2% @ 14.7 | 24% @ 6.0 | 17.5 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 36% @ 14.9 | 42% @ 8.4 | 22% @ 2.8 | 9.5 |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 4.2 | 6.0 | BUST | 55.0% | 29.8% | 15.2% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 12.2 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 42.3% | 35.3% | 22.4% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 17.3 | 0.0 | BUST | 26.7% | 52.3% | 21.0% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 | BUST | 24.9% | 45.3% | 29.8% |
| Jason Myers | K | 8.1 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 23.2% | 55.1% | 21.6% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 9.7 | 11.0 | MODERATE | 18.8% | 25.1% | 56.0% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 8.7 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 17.6% | 44.8% | 37.6% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 13.2 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 16.9% | 61.6% | 21.5% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 18.7 | 22.0 | BOOM | 13.5% | 50.0% | 36.4% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 15.2 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 12.9% | 38.9% | 48.2% |
| Jayden Reed | WR | 11.2 | 8.0 | BUST | 12.9% | 35.6% | 51.5% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 13.9 | 18.0 | BOOM | 12.6% | 44.9% | 42.6% |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 9.3 | 6.0 | BUST | 11.9% | 28.2% | 59.9% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 19.9 | 21.5 | BOOM | 11.4% | 66.0% | 22.6% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 4.2 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 10.6% | 29.7% | 59.7% |
| Devin Singletary | RB | 7.5 | 6.0 | BUST | 9.6% | 30.1% | 60.4% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 13.2 | 8.0 | BUST | 9.0% | 33.3% | 57.7% |
Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.
| Rank | Team | Record | PF (Total) | PA (Total) | +/- | This Week | Streak | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 10-5 | 1993.5 | 1800.6 | +192.9 | 132.3 vs 124.1 | L1 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 10-5 | 1856.2 | 1860.5 | -4.3 | 85.1 vs 95.1 | W2 | 100.0% |
| 3 | Valued Customers ← | 9-6 | 1917.9 | 1643.7 | +274.2 | 95.1 vs 85.1 | W5 | 100.0% |
| 4 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 8-7 | 1884.0 | 1857.2 | +26.8 | 124.1 vs 132.3 | W1 | 100.0% |
| 5 | Wookie of the Year | 8-7 | 1867.8 | 1813.3 | +54.5 | 161.9 vs 81.4 | L1 | 0.0% |
| 6 | Meat Pistols | 8-7 | 1596.4 | 1826.8 | -230.4 | 81.4 vs 161.9 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 7 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7-8 | 1791.8 | 1811.8 | -20.0 | 61.2 vs 137.1 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 8 | Moms rules | 7-8 | 1802.0 | 1839.7 | -37.7 | 137.1 vs 61.2 | W1 | 0.0% |
| 9 | Smooth Roosters | 7-8 | 1769.3 | 1760.0 | +9.2 | 104.8 vs 113.1 | W3 | 0.0% |
| 10 | The Warsaw Pact | 6-9 | 1766.6 | 1856.8 | -90.2 | 113.1 vs 104.8 | W2 | 0.0% |
| 11 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 6-9 | 1715.6 | 1806.9 | -91.3 | 131.6 vs 117.3 | L5 | 0.0% |
| 12 | Auto DraftKings | 4-11 | 1815.2 | 1898.9 | -83.8 | 117.3 vs 131.6 | L4 | 0.0% |
| Away Team | Score | Score | Home Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitty's Piggy Skins | 132.3 | @ | 124.1 | Ryan's Rowdy Team |
| 4th and pinches | 85.1 | @ | 95.1 | Valued Customers |
| Wookie of the Year | 161.9 | @ | 81.4 | Meat Pistols |
| Torta Pounders Football Club | 61.2 | @ | 137.1 | Moms rules |
| Smooth Roosters | 104.8 | @ | 113.1 | The Warsaw Pact |
| Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 131.6 | @ | 117.3 | Auto DraftKings |
Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.
JORDAN LOVE (QB, GB) - OUT (Concussion) - Suffered concussion Week 16 vs Bears, ruled OUT - MAJOR impact on our roster - need backup QB plan - Malik Willis (backup) also banged up - Source: Reddit r/fantasyfootball, NFL.com
RASHEE RICE (WR, KC) - OUT (IR) - Confirmed out for regular season (LCL surgery) - Remove from consideration - Source: Chiefs injury report
LAMAR JACKSON (BAL) - OUT - BAL's starting QB out with back injury - Makes GB defense WEAKER (helps our WR if Love was playing) - Tyler Huntley starting - Source: Ravens beat reporters
MARVIN HARRISON JR. (WR, ARI) - ACTIVE - Returned Week 16 from heel injury - Cardinals eliminated from playoffs - may see limited snaps - Elite matchup vs CIN (5th-worst vs QB)
| Game | Total | Spread | Key Insight |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB @ BAL | 46.5 | GB -5.5 | High-scoring, but Love OUT changes everything |
| ARI @ CIN | 51.5 | CIN -6.0 | HIGHEST TOTAL - shootout expected, Brissett/MHJ benefit |
| SEA vs CAR | 43.5 | SEA -7.5 | Good spot for JSN, Myers |
| TB vs MIA | 46.5 | TB -4.5 | Bucky Irving solid floor game |
| DET @ MIN | 48.5 | DET -3.5 | Christmas Day shootout, JWill upside |
| TEN vs NO | 39.5 | NO -1.5 | Lower total, Spears/Juwan average |
| LAC vs HOU | 40.0 | HOU -1.5 | Hampton tough matchup vs best RB defense |
| KC vs DEN | 36.5 | DEN -11.5 | Chiefs decimated, Pacheco limited value |
| LAR @ ATL | 48.5 | LAR -8.5 | Rams D/ST upside vs struggling Falcons |
| NYG vs LV | 42.5 | NYG -3.0 | Singletary neutral matchup |
ELITE MATCHUPS (Target) - MIN vs WR: #1 worst (25.2 PPG) → Jameson Williams BOOM potential - CIN vs QB: #5 worst (18.9 PPG) → Brissett excellent spot - NO vs RB: #7 worst (20.6 PPG) → Spears solid floor - BAL vs WR: #5 worst (23.5 PPG) → Jayden Reed (if Love was playing)
TOUGH MATCHUPS (Downgrade) - HOU vs RB: #1 best (15.0 PPG) → Hampton BUST risk - DEN vs RB: #20 (16.2 PPG) → Pacheco challenging - BAL vs QB: #7 best (17.8 PPG) → Love would've struggled (now moot)
NEUTRAL - MIA vs RB: #15 → Bucky Irving standard game - CAR vs WR: #11 → JSN solid - LV vs RB: #14 → Singletary average
With Love OUT, this is now decided: - START: Jacoby Brissett (ARI) @ CIN - CIN allows 5th-most fantasy points to QBs - Game total 51.5 (highest of the week) - 74% historical BOOM probability in MC density - MHJ, McMillan as weapons
ARI @ CIN (Our Exposure: Brissett, MHJ, McMillan) - 51.5 game total = shootout expected - All three benefit from high-scoring environment - POSITIVE correlation: QB success = WR success
DET @ MIN (Our Exposure: Jameson Williams) - 48.5 game total, DET -3.5 - Williams vs MIN (#1 worst vs WR) - Amon-Ra St. Brown may draw coverage, opens Williams
LOCKED-IN STARTERS: 1. Jacoby Brissett (QB) - Elite CIN matchup, 51.5 total 2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR) - SEA WR1, favorable CAR matchup 3. Bucky Irving (RB) - TB bellcow, solid floor 4. Jameson Williams (WR) - MIN worst WR defense 5. Juwan Johnson (TE) - Week 16 boom (16.9 pts), continue riding
SOLID STARTERS: 6. Tyjae Spears (RB) - Week 16 boom (21.5 pts), NO allows 7th-most to RBs 7. Tetairoa McMillan (WR/FLEX) - CIN shootout, rookie upside 8. Jason Myers (K) - SEA K, CAR allows 31 PPG
QUESTIONABLE/BENCH: - Marvin Harrison Jr. - Heel concerns, ARI eliminated - Omarion Hampton - HOU #1 RB defense - Jayden Reed - Love OUT kills his value - Jordan Love - OUT (concussion)
DO NOT PLAY: - Rashee Rice - OUT (IR) - Isiah Pacheco - Chiefs decimated, rib injury
Positive Buzz: Bucky Irving, Jameson Williams, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Negative Buzz: Jordan Love, Rashee Rice, Jayden Reed (without Love)
Mixed Buzz: Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel), Omarion Hampton (matchup)
No waiver recommendations this week.
No major injury concerns.
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 18.7 | 22.0 | 10.6 | -11.4 |
| Opponent | RB | Kareem Hunt | 11.0 | - | 0.2 | -10.8 |
| Opponent | TE | Trey McBride | 16.8 | - | 6.7 | -10.1 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 12.2 | 12.0 | 2.4 | -9.6 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.7 | 12.0 | 21.5 | +9.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 13.2 | 8.0 | 16.5 | +8.5 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.1 | 10.0 | 2.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 15.0 | 7.1 | -7.9 |
| Our Team | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 9.3 | 6.0 | 13.5 | +7.5 |
| Opponent | RB | Rico Dowdle | 15.2 | - | 8.3 | -6.9 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.9 | 18.0 | 12.0 | -6.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 11.0 | 16.9 | +5.9 |
| Opponent | WR | DK Metcalf | 13.5 | - | 8.2 | -5.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.2 | 15.0 | 19.3 | +4.3 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 4.2 | 8.0 | 4.0 | -4.0 |
| Opponent | QB | Baker Mayfield | 16.6 | - | 12.7 | -3.9 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.3 | 0.0 | 3.8 | +3.8 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Jaguars D/ST | 5.7 | - | 2.0 | -3.7 |
| Opponent | K | Harrison Butker | 8.0 | - | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 19.9 | 21.5 | 23.6 | +2.1 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 23.9 | - | 22.8 | -1.1 |
| Opponent | WR | Michael Wilson | 14.1 | - | 13.2 | -0.9 |
| Our Team | WR | Jayden Reed | 11.2 | 8.0 | 7.1 | -0.9 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 7.5 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -0.4 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Agent | K | Ka'imi Fairbairn | 0.0 | - | 16.0 | +16.0 |
| Free Agent | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 0.0 | - | 13.5 | +13.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.7 | 10.0 | 21.5 | +11.5 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.4 | 15.0 | 3.8 | -11.2 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 18.8 | 21.0 | 10.6 | -10.4 |
| Opponent | TE | Trey McBride | 16.8 | - | 6.7 | -10.1 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 15.9 | 22.0 | 12.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 14.2 | 12.0 | 2.4 | -9.6 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 4.2 | 12.0 | 4.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.1 | 9.0 | 16.9 | +7.9 |
| Our Team | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 9.1 | 6.0 | 13.5 | +7.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 14.0 | 7.1 | -6.9 |
| Opponent | RB | Rico Dowdle | 15.2 | - | 8.3 | -6.9 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.1 | 13.0 | 19.3 | +6.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Jayden Reed | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.1 | -5.9 |
| Opponent | WR | DK Metcalf | 13.5 | - | 8.2 | -5.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.8 | 5.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Patriots D/ST | 0.0 | - | 5.0 | +5.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Michael Carter | 11.0 | - | 6.5 | -4.5 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 0.0 | - | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| Opponent | QB | Baker Mayfield | 16.6 | - | 12.7 | -3.9 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Jaguars D/ST | 5.6 | - | 2.0 | -3.6 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 13.2 | 13.0 | 16.5 | +3.5 |
| Opponent | K | Harrison Butker | 8.0 | - | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 7.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 | +1.6 |
| Opponent | RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 23.8 | - | 22.8 | -1.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chiefs D/ST | 0.0 | - | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Michael Wilson | 13.4 | - | 13.2 | -0.2 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 19.9 | 23.6 | 23.6 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 5.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | K | Eddy Pineiro | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.