55%

Win Probability

+11.0

Projected Margin

CI: [-9.0 to +31.0]

Boom Potential

Chargers D/ST

Bust Risk

Jameson Williams (43%), Bucky Irving (48%), Juwan Johnson (56%)

Start/Sit Decisions

Locked Slots (players already played):

RB: 🔒 Omarion Hampton 16.5 pts

WR: 🔒 Jameson Williams 12.0 pts

RB/WR/TE: 🔒 Marvin Harrison Jr. 2.4 pts

K: 🔒 Jason Myers 2.0 pts

TE: 🔒 Juwan Johnson 16.9 pts

QB: 🔒 Jacoby Brissett 10.6 pts

D/ST: 🔒 Chargers D/ST 4.0 pts

Pending Decisions:

: Start over Love OUT with concussion. Brissett has elite CIN matchup (51.5 game total, 5th-worst vs QB defense).

: Start over Irving is TB bellcow vs MIA (#15 RB defense). Hampton faces HOU #1 RB defense.

: Start over Spears coming off 21.5 pt Week 16 boom. NO allows 7th-most to RBs. Hampton's HOU matchup is brutal.

: Start over JSN is SEA WR1 vs CAR. Week 16: 23.6 pts. Consistent target share.

: Start over Williams vs MIN (#1 worst WR defense, 25.2 PPG). Christmas Day shootout (48.5 total).

: Start over McMillan in ARI @ CIN shootout (51.5 total). MHJ has heel concern and ARI is eliminated - snap count risk.

: Start over Debate result: Chargers have 35.9% MC BOOM (vs Rams 21.7%), only 22.3% BUST (vs Rams 39.8%). Boom/bust ratio 1.6x is championship-optimal.

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

Slot	Player	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Confidence
QB	Jacoby Brissett	CIN	18.7	22.0	BOOM	MEDIUM
RB	Bucky Irving	MIA	15.2	15.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
RB	Tyjae Spears	NO	8.7	12.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	CAR	19.9	21.5	BOOM	MEDIUM
WR	Jameson Williams	MIN	13.9	18.0	BOOM	MEDIUM
TE	Juwan Johnson	TEN	9.7	11.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Tetairoa McMillan	SEA	13.2	15.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
K	Jason Myers	CAR	8.1	10.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
D/ST	Chargers D/ST	HOU	4.2	6.0	BUST	MEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Championship Finals Week 17 - maximize ceiling, address Jordan Love OUT

#1 Harrison Mevis (K, LAC)

DROP: Jayden Reed (Love OUT tanks value)

Myers is solid but Mevis has been hot (30% boom in MC). With Reed's value tanked due to Love OUT, can upgrade kicker for ceiling play. Both kickers pr...

#2 Sam Darnold (QB, SEA)

DROP: Jordan Love

If Brissett disappoints, Darnold is a solid backup option. SEA offense clicking. However, Brissett @ CIN (51.5 total) is still the better play.

#3 Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC)

DROP: Rashee Rice (IR - useless)

Johnston has been on fire (20.4 pts Week 16). DAL matchup is excellent. Can replace Rice's IR roster clog.

⚠️ Avoid: Keenan Allen, Garrett Wilson, Jayden Daniels, Cooper Kupp

See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.

Executive Summary

Championship Finals Week 17 against Kitty's Piggy Skins (10-5, #1 seed). Jordan Love is OUT with concussion, so Jacoby Brissett starts at QB in an elite matchup vs CIN (51.5 game total, highest of the week). Key starters: JSN, Jameson Williams, Bucky Irving, Tyjae Spears. McMillan gets the FLEX nod over MHJ due to heel concerns. CHARGERS D/ST over Rams per debate (35.9% boom vs 21.7%). Projected: 130.5 pts.

Key Insights

CRITICAL: Jordan Love OUT (concussion) - Brissett takes over as QB1 starter
ARI @ CIN has 51.5 total (highest) - Brissett/MHJ/McMillan all benefit from shootout
Jameson Williams vs MIN (#1 worst WR defense, 25.2 PPG allowed) - BOOM spot
Omarion Hampton benched - HOU has #1 RB defense (15.0 PPG allowed)
Jayden Reed value tanks with Love OUT - Willis severely limits ceiling
Week 16 XGB validation: Only 17.6% mode accuracy - don't trust bust predictions
Waiver wire: Consider dropping Reed for Mevis (K upgrade with ceiling)

Matchup Status (Week 17)

95.1 - 85.1 vs 4th and pinches

Games Completed (16)

Player	Pos	Slot	Actual	ESPN	LLM	vs LLM
Jacoby Brissett	QB	QB	✓ 10.6	18.7	22.0	-11.4
Bucky Irving	RB	RB	✓ 7.1	15.2	15.0	-7.9
Omarion Hampton	RB	RB	✓ 16.5	13.2	8.0	+8.5
Jameson Williams	WR	WR	✓ 12.0	15.9	18.0	-6.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	WR	✓ 23.6	19.9	21.5	+2.1
Juwan Johnson	TE	TE	✓ 16.9	9.1	11.0	+5.9
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	RB/WR/TE	✓ 2.4	12.2	12.0	-9.6
Jason Myers	K	K	✓ 2.0	8.1	10.0	-8.0
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	✓ 4.0	4.2	6.0	-2.0
Devin Singletary (bench)	RB	BE	✓ 5.6	7.5	6.0	-0.4
Isiah Pacheco (bench)	RB	BE	✓ 13.5	9.3	6.0	+7.5
Jayden Reed (bench)	WR	BE	✓ 7.1	11.2	8.0	-0.9
Jordan Love (bench)	QB	BE	✓ 3.8	17.3	---	-13.5
Rams D/ST (bench)	D/ST	BE	✓ 4.0	5.6	8.0	-4.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench)	WR	BE	✓ 19.3	13.1	15.0	+4.3
Tyjae Spears (bench)	RB	BE	✓ 21.5	8.7	12.0	+9.5

Games Pending (1)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Rashee Rice (bench)	WR	IR	0.0	---

95.1 Actual

130.5 LLM Total

95.1 ESPN Total

Opponent: 4th and pinches

Opponent Games Completed (15)

Player	Pos	Slot	Actual	ESPN	LLM	vs ESPN
Baker Mayfield	QB	QB	✓ 12.7	16.6	---	-3.9
Kareem Hunt	RB	RB	✓ 0.2	11.0	---	-10.8
Rico Dowdle	RB	RB	✓ 8.3	15.2	---	-6.9
DK Metcalf	WR	WR	✓ 8.2	13.5	---	-5.3
Michael Wilson	WR	WR	✓ 13.2	14.1	---	-0.9
Trey McBride	TE	TE	✓ 6.7	16.8	---	-10.1
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	RB/WR/TE	✓ 22.8	23.9	---	-1.1
Harrison Butker	K	K	✓ 11.0	8.0	---	+3.0
Jaguars D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	✓ 2.0	5.7	---	-3.7
Aaron Rodgers (bench)	QB	BE	✓ 15.5	14.8	---	+0.7
Colby Parkinson (bench)	TE	BE	✓ 4.1	9.6	---	-5.5
Darren Waller (bench)	TE	BE	✓ 7.0	9.3	---	-2.3
Jordan Addison (bench)	WR	BE	✓ 4.6	10.5	---	-5.9
Michael Carter (bench)	RB	BE	✓ 6.5	11.0	---	-4.5
Romeo Doubs (bench)	WR	BE	✓ 19.4	9.6	---	+9.8

Opponent Games Pending (1)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Rome Odunze (bench)	WR	BE	0.0	---

85.1 Opp Actual

120.0 Opp LLM Total

85.1 Opp ESPN Total

Projected Margin: +10.5 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs BAL)

Projections: ESPN 17.3 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: CONFIRMED OUT with concussion (source: NFL.com). Cannot play Week 17. Backup Malik Willis also injured. Set to 0.0 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	DEN	14.8	17.0	13.9	-0.9
14	CHI	17.6	18.0	19.3	+1.6
13	DET	15.7	18.2	25.8	+10.0
12	MIN	17.4	-	7.1	-10.4
11	NYG	16.3	-	17.7	+1.3
10	PHI	17.0	-	7.8	-9.1
9	CAR	18.1	-	9.0	-9.1
8	PIT	17.1	-	28.3	+11.2
7	ARI	17.4	-	13.4	-4.0
6	CIN	19.3	-	15.0	-4.4
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	18.6	-	26.3	+7.7
3	CLE	16.0	-	11.1	-4.9
2	WSH	17.6	-	20.9	+3.3
1	DET	14.9	-	15.9	+1.0

Trending up: 19.7 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 18.7 | LLM 22.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 74% BOOM (historical pattern shows high ceiling). XGB: 13.5% boom, 36.4% bust (model underestimates). CIN allows 5th-most fantasy points to QBs (18.9 PPG). 51.5 game total is HIGHEST of the week. With MHJ and McMillan as weapons in shootout conditions, selecting BOOM mode. Projection: 22.0 pts (within BOOM range 17-29).

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	HOU	13.9	16.0	20.6	+6.7
14	LAR	15.3	19.0	19.0	+3.7
13	TB	17.2	20.5	19.6	+2.4
12	JAX	16.7	-	18.7	+1.9
11	SF	17.9	-	21.9	+3.9
10	SEA	15.3	-	19.4	+4.2
9	DAL	19.4	-	24.8	+5.4
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	16.6	-	19.8	+3.2
6	IND	13.4	-	20.7	+7.3
5	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	CAR	0.0	-	0.2	+0.2
1	NO	0.1	-	0.0	-0.1

6-game streak of beating projections
Averaging 12.3 pts vs 9.7 projected (+27%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.85)
Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Bucky Irving (TB vs MIA)

Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 59% MODERATE, 25% BUST. XGB: 12.9% boom, 48.2% bust (over-predicts bust). TB bellcow vs MIA (#15 vs RB). Week 16: 7.1 pts underperformed but solid usage. Game total 46.5 supports scoring. Selecting MODERATE mode. Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-19).

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	ATL	15.2	14.0	8.1	-7.1
14	NO	16.4	16.0	16.1	-0.3
13	ARI	11.8	12.0	16.1	+4.3
12	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	NE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	NO	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	PHI	17.5	-	25.5	+8.0
3	NYJ	17.9	-	13.9	-4.0
2	HOU	15.9	-	18.1	+2.2
1	ATL	17.3	-	14.5	-2.8

Trending up: 13.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 61% MODERATE, 25% BUST. XGB: 17.6% boom, 37.6% bust. Week 16 BOOMED with 21.5 pts. NO allows 7th-most to RBs. Haskins out elevated role. Selecting upper-MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-14).

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	SF	10.0	6.0	5.6	-4.4
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

5-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE, 32% BUST. XGB: 9.0% boom, 57.7% bust. HOU has #1 RB defense (15.0 PPG allowed). Tough matchup. Selecting BUST mode. Projection: 8.0 pts (within BUST range 1.4-8.9).

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	KC	11.7	10.0	7.5	-4.2
14	PHI	12.1	8.0	14.7	+2.6
13	LV	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	18.6	-	13.0	-5.6
4	NYG	16.7	-	27.5	+10.8
3	DEN	12.2	-	24.9	+12.7
2	LV	15.7	-	3.5	-12.2
1	KC	14.7	-	8.1	-6.6

Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs LV)

Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 61% BUST. XGB: 9.6% boom, 60.4% bust. NYG vs LV neutral but inconsistent. Bench depth only. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range -1.0-6.5).

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	WSH	10.8	6.0	2.4	-8.4
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NE	6.3	-	19.2	+12.9
12	DET	9.9	-	4.7	-5.2
11	GB	9.6	-	17.7	+8.1
10	CHI	9.7	-	10.3	+0.6
9	SF	5.5	-	7.1	+1.6
8	PHI	1.2	-	3.8	+2.6
7	DEN	0.8	-	0.2	-0.6
6	PHI	1.0	-	1.0	+0.0
5	NO	6.0	-	3.4	-2.6
4	LAC	7.4	-	2.8	-4.6
3	KC	1.1	-	1.1	+0.0
2	DAL	3.2	-	1.0	-2.2
1	WSH	3.5	-	0.9	-2.6

Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 70% BUST, 27% MODERATE. XGB: 11.9% boom, 59.9% bust. Rib injury Week 16. Chiefs decimated (-11.5 dogs to DEN). Limited value in playoff week. Selecting BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 1-10).

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	7.2	-	2.1	-5.1
14	HOU	8.3	-	3.0	-5.3
13	DAL	9.7	-	5.3	-4.4
12	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	WSH	11.4	-	5.8	-5.6
7	LV	11.5	-	12.4	+0.9
6	DET	8.9	-	6.1	-2.8
5	JAX	7.7	-	8.6	+0.9
4	BAL	9.2	-	12.8	+3.6
3	NYG	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
2	PHI	10.9	-	3.9	-7.0
1	LAC	12.8	-	4.8	-8.0

3-game streak of missing projections
Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 19.9 | LLM 21.5 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 44% MODERATE, 29% BUST, 27% BOOM. XGB: 11.4% boom, 22.6% bust. SEA WR1 vs CAR (#11 vs WR). Week 16: 23.6 pts BOOM. Consistent target share. Selecting BOOM mode. Projection: 21.5 pts (within BOOM range 21.2-36.2).

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	20.6	22.0	18.3	-2.3
14	ATL	20.9	22.0	28.1	+7.2
13	MIN	21.9	24.0	4.3	-17.6
12	TEN	21.3	-	37.1	+15.8
11	LAR	23.0	-	20.6	-2.4
10	ARI	22.0	-	20.3	-1.7
9	WSH	24.5	-	22.0	-2.5
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	20.0	-	26.3	+6.3
6	JAX	17.9	-	30.2	+12.3
5	TB	15.9	-	27.2	+11.3
4	ARI	16.4	-	13.0	-3.4
3	NO	15.5	-	20.6	+5.1
2	PIT	14.4	-	18.3	+3.9
1	SF	14.7	-	19.4	+4.7

Averaging 20.4 pts vs 17.9 projected (+14%)
Trending down: 16.9 avg (last 3) vs 26.0 (prior 3)
Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs SEA)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 49% BUST, 37% MODERATE, 14% BOOM. XGB: 16.9% boom, 21.5% bust. ARI @ CIN (51.5 total). Rookie WR with Brissett chemistry. Week 16: 19.3 pts BOOM. Selecting upper-MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 10-20).

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	NO	13.2	11.0	4.5	-8.7
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	13.0	11.3	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	-	11.5	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	-	33.0	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	-	11.0	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	-	8.6	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	-	16.9	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	-	6.3	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	-	17.9	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	-	13.3	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	-	10.2	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	-	7.8	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	-	16.0	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	-	11.8	-2.1

Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 12.2 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE, 31% BUST, 27% BOOM. XGB: 42.3% boom, 22.4% bust. Heel injury concern. ARI eliminated from playoffs. CIN matchup is good but snap count uncertain. Selecting MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within MODERATE range 8-16).

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	HOU	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	14.0	12.9	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	-	14.3	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	-	22.6	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	-	7.8	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	-	5.2	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	-	13.8	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	-	18.6	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	-	7.4	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	-	4.7	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	-	18.1	+4.2

Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: CONFIRMED OUT on IR (LCL surgery, source: ESPN). Season-ending. Cannot play Week 17. Set to 0.0 pts.

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	17.2	11.0	12.1	-5.1
14	HOU	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	18.4	29.4	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	-	24.1	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	-	9.8	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	-	18.6	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	-	25.5	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	-	23.2	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	LAC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 44% MODERATE, 29% BOOM. XGB: 12.6% boom, 42.6% bust (over-predicts bust). MIN has WORST WR defense (#1, 25.2 PPG allowed). DET-MIN 48.5 total. Christmas Day spotlight game. Week 16: 12.0 pts moderate. Selecting BOOM mode for elite matchup. Projection: 18.0 pts (within BOOM range 17-32).

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAR	13.9	18.0	26.4	+12.5
14	DAL	13.8	17.3	17.3	+3.5
13	GB	11.8	15.1	26.9	+15.1
12	NYG	12.9	-	0.0	-12.9
11	PHI	12.6	-	19.7	+7.1
10	WSH	12.1	-	23.9	+11.8
9	MIN	11.0	-	16.6	+5.6
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	TB	13.2	-	0.0	-13.2
6	KC	10.7	-	18.6	+7.9
5	CIN	11.8	-	2.0	-9.8
4	CLE	10.7	-	5.7	-5.0
3	BAL	12.9	-	6.3	-6.6
2	CHI	13.0	-	18.8	+5.8
1	GB	12.9	-	6.6	-6.3

3-game streak of beating projections
Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Jayden Reed (GB vs BAL)

Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 66% MODERATE, 24% BUST. XGB: 12.9% boom, 51.5% bust. Jordan Love OUT with concussion. Malik Willis severely limits Reed. Was a solid play with Love but now BUST risk. Projection: 8.0 pts (within BUST range 3-10).

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 66% | BOOM: 10%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	DEN	10.0	-	10.5	+0.5
14	CHI	7.7	-	9.3	+1.6
13	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
12	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	CAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	ARI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	CIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	CLE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	WSH	11.3	-	0.0	-11.3
1	DET	11.2	-	13.5	+2.3

Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

Juwan Johnson (NO vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 45% MODERATE, 30% BOOM, 25% BUST. XGB: 18.8% boom, 56.0% bust (over-predicts bust). Week 16: 16.9 pts BOOM. Carr connection improving late season. TEN vs NO (39.5 total - lower). Selecting upper-MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-12).

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	CAR	9.7	10.0	7.0	-2.7
14	TB	9.7	10.0	7.8	-1.9
13	MIA	8.7	11.0	8.9	+0.2
12	ATL	9.3	-	10.6	+1.3
11	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	CAR	8.9	-	19.2	+10.2
9	LAR	8.3	-	12.1	+3.8
8	TB	9.6	-	10.3	+0.7
7	CHI	7.5	-	12.9	+5.4
6	NE	7.9	-	1.5	-6.4
5	NYG	7.9	-	3.7	-4.2
4	BUF	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
3	SEA	10.6	-	11.1	+0.5
2	SF	9.1	-	15.9	+6.8
1	ARI	7.3	-	15.6	+8.3

Averaging 9.5 pts vs 8.4 projected (+13%)
Trending down: 7.9 avg (last 3) vs 9.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs BAL

Projections: ESPN 17.3 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21%

Notes: CONFIRMED OUT with concussion (source: NFL.com). Cannot play Week 17. Backup Malik Willis also injured. Set to 0.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	DEN	14.8	17.0	13.9	-0.9
14	CHI	17.6	18.0	19.3	+1.6
13	DET	15.7	18.2	25.8	+10.0
12	MIN	17.4	-	7.1	-10.4
11	NYG	16.3	-	17.7	+1.3
10	PHI	17.0	-	7.8	-9.1
9	CAR	18.1	-	9.0	-9.1
8	PIT	17.1	-	28.3	+11.2
7	ARI	17.4	-	13.4	-4.0
6	CIN	19.3	-	15.0	-4.4
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	18.6	-	26.3	+7.7
3	CLE	16.0	-	11.1	-4.9
2	WSH	17.6	-	20.9	+3.3
1	DET	14.9	-	15.9	+1.0

Trending up: 19.7 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs CIN

Projections: ESPN 12.2 | LLM 12.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 43% MODERATE, 31% BUST, 27% BOOM. XGB: 42.3% boom, 22.4% bust. Heel injury concern. ARI eliminated from playoffs. CIN matchup is good but snap count uncertain. Selecting MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within MODERATE range 8-16).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	HOU	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	14.0	12.9	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	-	14.3	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	-	22.6	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	-	7.8	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	-	5.2	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	-	13.8	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	-	18.6	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	-	7.4	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	-	4.7	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	-	18.1	+4.2

Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (WR) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%

Notes: CONFIRMED OUT on IR (LCL surgery, source: ESPN). Season-ending. Cannot play Week 17. Set to 0.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	17.2	11.0	12.1	-5.1
14	HOU	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	18.4	29.4	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	-	24.1	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	-	9.8	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	-	18.6	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	-	25.5	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	-	23.2	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	LAC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Omarion Hampton (RB) - LAC vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58%

Notes: MC: 43% MODERATE, 32% BUST. XGB: 9.0% boom, 57.7% bust. HOU has #1 RB defense (15.0 PPG allowed). Tough matchup. Selecting BUST mode. Projection: 8.0 pts (within BUST range 1.4-8.9).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	KC	11.7	10.0	7.5	-4.2
14	PHI	12.1	8.0	14.7	+2.6
13	LV	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	18.6	-	13.0	-5.6
4	NYG	16.7	-	27.5	+10.8
3	DEN	12.2	-	24.9	+12.7
2	LV	15.7	-	3.5	-12.2
1	KC	14.7	-	8.1	-6.6

Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Rams D/ST (D/ST) - LAR vs ATL

Projections: ESPN 4.2 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 40% BUST, 39% MODERATE, 22% BOOM. XGB: 10.6% boom, 59.7% bust. LAR @ ATL. Falcons allow 28 TDs (tied-most). LAR -8.5 favorites = likely positive game script. Selecting MODERATE. Projection: 8.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-13).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	DET	4.2	4.0	-1.0	-5.2
14	ARI	6.9	9.0	6.0	-0.9
13	CAR	7.5	10.0	1.0	-6.5
12	TB	5.7	-	20.0	+14.3
11	SEA	5.4	-	5.0	-0.4
10	SF	6.4	-	5.0	-1.4
9	NO	8.2	-	10.0	+1.8
7	JAX	6.7	-	9.0	+2.3
6	BAL	6.2	-	16.0	+9.8
5	SF	7.0	-	-2.0	-9.0
4	IND	5.7	-	6.0	+0.3
3	PHI	5.2	-	7.0	+1.8
2	TEN	7.4	-	9.0	+1.6
1	HOU	5.6	-	12.0	+6.4

3-game streak of missing projections
Averaging 7.4 pts vs 6.3 projected (+17%)
Trending down: 2.0 avg (last 3) vs 10.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
Season high: 20.0 pts in Week 12

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs LV

Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 61% BUST. XGB: 9.6% boom, 60.4% bust. NYG vs LV neutral but inconsistent. Bench depth only. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range -1.0-6.5).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	WSH	10.8	6.0	2.4	-8.4
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NE	6.3	-	19.2	+12.9
12	DET	9.9	-	4.7	-5.2
11	GB	9.6	-	17.7	+8.1
10	CHI	9.7	-	10.3	+0.6
9	SF	5.5	-	7.1	+1.6
8	PHI	1.2	-	3.8	+2.6
7	DEN	0.8	-	0.2	-0.6
6	PHI	1.0	-	1.0	+0.0
5	NO	6.0	-	3.4	-2.6
4	LAC	7.4	-	2.8	-4.6
3	KC	1.1	-	1.1	+0.0
2	DAL	3.2	-	1.0	-2.2
1	WSH	3.5	-	0.9	-2.6

Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (RB) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 70% BUST, 27% MODERATE. XGB: 11.9% boom, 59.9% bust. Rib injury Week 16. Chiefs decimated (-11.5 dogs to DEN). Limited value in playoff week. Selecting BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 1-10).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	7.2	-	2.1	-5.1
14	HOU	8.3	-	3.0	-5.3
13	DAL	9.7	-	5.3	-4.4
12	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	WSH	11.4	-	5.8	-5.6
7	LV	11.5	-	12.4	+0.9
6	DET	8.9	-	6.1	-2.8
5	JAX	7.7	-	8.6	+0.9
4	BAL	9.2	-	12.8	+3.6
3	NYG	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
2	PHI	10.9	-	3.9	-7.0
1	LAC	12.8	-	4.8	-8.0

3-game streak of missing projections
Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jayden Reed (WR) - GB vs BAL

Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 66% | BOOM: 10%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52%

Notes: MC: 66% MODERATE, 24% BUST. XGB: 12.9% boom, 51.5% bust. Jordan Love OUT with concussion. Malik Willis severely limits Reed. Was a solid play with Love but now BUST risk. Projection: 8.0 pts (within BUST range 3-10).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	DEN	10.0	-	10.5	+0.5
14	CHI	7.7	-	9.3	+1.6
13	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
12	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	CAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	ARI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	CIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	CLE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	WSH	11.3	-	0.0	-11.3
1	DET	11.2	-	13.5	+2.3

Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

Jaguars D/ST (D/ST): 48% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

Player	Pos	Team	ESPN	LLM	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%	Threat
Jaguars D/ST	D/ST	JAX	5.7	9.2	48%	32%	20%	HIGH
DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	13.5	12.7	30%	50%	20%	MEDIUM
Kareem Hunt	RB	KC	11.0	10.3	24%	38%	39%	MEDIUM
Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	16.6	17.1	18%	59%	23%	LOW
Trey McBride	TE	ARI	16.8	17.3	17%	63%	20%	LOW
Harrison Butker	K	KC	8.0	8.3	16%	26%	57%	LOW
Rico Dowdle	RB	CAR	15.2	13.1	14%	59%	27%	LOW
Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	14.1	12.5	8%	36%	56%	LOW
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	23.9	20.4	7%	23%	70%	LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Jaguars D/ST: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 42%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 20%)

DK Metcalf: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 30% | Bust 20%)

Kareem Hunt: MC (BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 25%) | XGB (Boom 24% | Bust 39%)

Baker Mayfield: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 52% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 23%)

Trey McBride: MC (BUST: 41% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 20%)

Harrison Butker: MC (BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 25%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 57%)

Rico Dowdle: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 14% | Bust 27%)

Michael Wilson: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 8% | Bust 56%)

Jahmyr Gibbs: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 7% | Bust 70%)

Add/Drop Recommendations

Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

🎯 Priority Pickups (Injury/Opportunity Based)

Championship Finals Week 17 - maximize ceiling, address Jordan Love OUT

#1 Harrison Mevis (K, LAC)

vs vs HOU (Average)

ESPN: 8.0 Trend: HOT DROP: Jayden Reed (Love OUT tanks value)

Myers is solid but Mevis has been hot (30% boom in MC). With Reed's value tanked due to Love OUT, can upgrade kicker for ceiling play. Both kickers project similarly but Mevis trending up.

Week 17: Chargers offense efficient, should get FG opportunities vs HOU

#2 Sam Darnold (QB, SEA)

vs vs LAR (Good (LAR allows solid points to QBs))

ESPN: 13.9 Trend: HOT DROP: Jordan Love

If Brissett disappoints, Darnold is a solid backup option. SEA offense clicking. However, Brissett @ CIN (51.5 total) is still the better play.

Week 17: Good floor QB with rushing upside

#3 Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC)

vs vs DAL (Elite)

ESPN: 9.1 Trend: HOT DROP: Rashee Rice (IR - useless)

Johnston has been on fire (20.4 pts Week 16). DAL matchup is excellent. Can replace Rice's IR roster clog.

Week 17: LAC passing game efficient, Johnston emerging

#4 Hunter Henry (TE, NE)

vs vs BAL (Average)

ESPN: 10.4 Trend: HOT DROP: Devin Singletary

If Juwan Johnson concerns you, Henry is a solid TE2. Week 16: 15.5 pts. Consistent target share with Drake Maye developing.

Week 17: BAL allows middle-of-pack to TEs

⚠️ Players to Avoid

Keenan Allen (WR)

69% BUST in MC, fading role with Johnston emerging

Garrett Wilson (WR)

Jets offense dysfunction, 0.0 pts Week 16

Jayden Daniels (QB)

OUT for Week 17

Cooper Kupp (WR)

On Seahawks now, 46% BUST, inconsistent

📋 Quick Summary

ADD Harrison Mevis (K), DROP Jayden Reed - ceiling upgrade at kicker
DROP Rashee Rice - IR clog, add Quentin Johnston for upside
HOLD Jordan Love on bench - still has playoff value if healthy Week 18

MC-Based Analysis (Auto-Generated)

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (7): Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (36 pts)), Omarion Hampton (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Jayden Reed (Elite ceiling (34 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))

ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,

Boom%47%

Bust%20%

EV12.2

BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (8-20) BOOM: 14% (13-28)

DROP Rashee Rice WR

Boom%25%

Bust%30%

EV0.0

OUT: 100% (0-0)

ADD Jayden Daniels QB,

Boom%34%

Bust%30%

EV0.0

OUT: 100% (0-0)

ADD Evan Engram TE,

Boom%27%

Bust%24%

EV8.0

BUST: 34% (-0-6) MODERATE: 45% (4-13) BOOM: 20% (9-21)

ADD Commanders D/ST D/ST,

Boom%24%

Bust%38%

EV7.8

BUST: 37% (-3-9) MODERATE: 39% (2-14) BOOM: 24% (7-22)

ADD Bears D/ST D/ST,

Boom%20%

Bust%30%

EV8.4

BUST: 32% (-3-9) MODERATE: 44% (2-14) BOOM: 25% (9-24)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

Player	Pos	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%	Own%
J.K. Dobbins	RB	12.2	47%	20%	0.0%
Jayden Daniels	QB	0.0	34%	30%	0.0%
Evan Engram	TE	8.0	27%	24%	0.0%
Commanders D/ST	D/ST	7.8	24%	38%	0.0%
Bears D/ST	D/ST	8.4	20%	30%	0.0%
Matt Prater	K	0.0	19%	54%	0.0%
Cooper Kupp	WR	10.1	18%	48%	0.0%
Devin Neal	RB	9.6	18%	45%	0.0%
Harrison Mevis	K	9.0	16%	48%	0.0%
Dolphins D/ST	D/ST	8.4	15%	55%	0.0%
Quentin Johnston	WR	12.0	15%	39%	0.0%
Garrett Wilson	WR	14.7	15%	48%	0.0%
49ers D/ST	D/ST	8.0	14%	51%	0.0%
Rashid Shaheed	WR	10.2	14%	53%	0.0%
Sam Darnold	QB	15.4	13%	44%	0.0%

QB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Jayden Daniels	0.0	OUT:100%	34%	30%
Sam Darnold	15.4	BUST:38%, MODERATE:37%, BOOM:25%	13%	44%
Kyler Murray	16.8	BUST:17%, MODERATE:57%, BOOM:26%	11%	54%

RB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
J.K. Dobbins	12.2	BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14%	47%	20%
Devin Neal	9.6	BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19%	18%	45%
Trey Benson	8.7	BUST:34%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24%	12%	57%
Emanuel Wilson	7.7	BUST:55%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:10%	9%	60%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	9.5	BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12%	8%	61%

WR Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Cooper Kupp	10.1	BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12%	18%	48%
Quentin Johnston	12.0	BUST:29%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:18%	15%	39%
Garrett Wilson	14.7	BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22%	15%	48%
Rashid Shaheed	10.2	BUST:28%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:30%	14%	53%
Keenan Allen	11.6	BUST:69%, MODERATE:22%, BOOM:9%	9%	56%

TE Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Evan Engram	8.0	BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20%	27%	24%
Hunter Henry	9.7	BUST:51%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12%	8%	62%
Oronde Gadsden	13.7	BOOM:10%, MODERATE:40%, BUST:50%	0%	0%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Matt Prater	0.0	19%	54%
Harrison Mevis	9.0	16%	48%
Evan McPherson	9.6	9%	60%

D/ST Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Commanders D/ST	7.8	24%	38%
Bears D/ST	8.4	20%	30%
Dolphins D/ST	8.4	15%	55%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 17 | Generated: 2025-12-21 23:13

Matchup Summary

55.0%

Win Probability

+11.0

Expected Margin

130.5

My Team (LLM Proj)

120.0

Opponent (Proj)

32.7

Margin Std Dev

120.1

My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -42.7 pts | Median: -0.6 pts | Ceiling: +41.4 pts

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Jacoby Brissett	QB	MED	22.0	4.3-28.1	↑15+: 66% \| ↓5-: 12%
Bucky Irving	RB	HIGH	15.0	5.1-24.0	↑15+: 40% \| ↓5-: 10%
Omarion Hampton	RB	HIGH	8.0	3.7-24.1	↑15+: 34% \| ↓5-: 18%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	MED	21.5	6.4-30.3	↑15+: 62% \| ↓5-: 4%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	HIGH	12.0	3.8-21.5	↑15+: 31% \| ↓5-: 17%
Jameson Williams	WR	HIGH	18.0	4.2-26.3	↑15+: 51% \| ↓5-: 14%
Juwan Johnson	TE	HIGH	11.0	3.0-16.6	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 22%
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	6.0	1.0-18.0	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 27%
Jason Myers	K	MED	10.0	5.4-19.0	↑15+: 27% \| ↓5-: 7%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Jordan Love	QB	MED	0.0	6.6-27.3	↑15+: 53% \| ↓5-: 5%
Tyjae Spears	RB	HIGH	12.0	2.6-18.3	↑15+: 17% \| ↓5-: 28%
Devin Singletary	RB	HIGH	6.0	0.6-17.8	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 54%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	HIGH	6.0	2.2-15.2	↑15+: 10% \| ↓5-: 43%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	HIGH	15.0	4.8-25.1	↑15+: 26% \| ↓5-: 11%
Jayden Reed	WR	HIGH	8.0	3.8-21.6	↑15+: 23% \| ↓5-: 15%
Rams D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	8.0	1.0-18.4	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 34%

IR

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust	Distribution
Rashee Rice	WR	LOW	0.0	0.0-0.0	↑15+: 0% \| ↓5-: 100%

Opponent

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Baker Mayfield	QB	MED	17.1	6.4-27.8	↑15+: 59% \| ↓5-: 5%
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	HIGH	20.6	7.5-39.6	↑15+: 62% \| ↓5-: 1%
Rico Dowdle	RB	HIGH	13.1	3.2-27.2	↑15+: 31% \| ↓5-: 18%
Kareem Hunt	RB	HIGH	10.3	2.4-19.8	↑15+: 25% \| ↓5-: 28%
DK Metcalf	WR	HIGH	12.7	4.9-22.6	↑15+: 33% \| ↓5-: 10%
Michael Wilson	WR	HIGH	12.5	3.2-29.9	↑15+: 29% \| ↓5-: 27%
Trey McBride	TE	MED	17.2	8.2-29.1	↑15+: 53% \| ↓5-: 0%
Jaguars D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	9.1	0.5-17.6	↑15+: 18% \| ↓5-: 31%
Harrison Butker	K	HIGH	8.3	2.9-14.8	↑15+: 9% \| ↓5-: 26%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Aaron Rodgers	QB	HIGH	14.8	5.8-25.2	↑15+: 44% \| ↓5-: 7%
Michael Carter	RB	HIGH	8.8	1.2-17.4	↑15+: 17% \| ↓5-: 33%
Rome Odunze	WR	LOW	0.0	0.0-0.0	↑15+: 0% \| ↓5-: 100%
Jordan Addison	WR	HIGH	12.2	5.4-21.6	↑15+: 27% \| ↓5-: 8%
Romeo Doubs	WR	HIGH	10.3	2.6-19.9	↑15+: 22% \| ↓5-: 26%
Darren Waller	TE	HIGH	12.2	3.0-23.3	↑15+: 38% \| ↓5-: 27%
Colby Parkinson	TE	HIGH	9.1	1.8-18.2	↑15+: 20% \| ↓5-: 32%

Scenario Details

Player	Position	BOOM	MODERATE	BUST	EV
Bucky Irving	RB	17% @ 24.3	59% @ 14.3	25% @ 5.9	13.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	27% @ 28.7	44% @ 18.4	29% @ 7.6	18.0
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	27% @ 20.1	43% @ 12.0	31% @ 5.2	12.1
Omarion Hampton	RB	25% @ 23.1	43% @ 12.1	32% @ 5.2	12.6
Jason Myers	K	25% @ 18.3	44% @ 11.9	31% @ 6.5	11.8
Juwan Johnson	TE	30% @ 14.9	45% @ 8.8	25% @ 3.7	9.4
Jameson Williams	WR	29% @ 24.3	44% @ 15.6	28% @ 5.4	15.3
Jacoby Brissett	QB	74% @ 21.4	2% @ 14.7	24% @ 6.0	17.5
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	36% @ 14.9	42% @ 8.4	22% @ 2.8	9.5

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

Player	Pos	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	4.2	6.0	BUST	55.0%	29.8%	15.2%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	12.2	12.0	MODERATE	42.3%	35.3%	22.4%
Jordan Love	QB	17.3	0.0	BUST	26.7%	52.3%	21.0%
Rashee Rice	WR	0.0	0.0	BUST	24.9%	45.3%	29.8%
Jason Myers	K	8.1	10.0	MODERATE	23.2%	55.1%	21.6%
Juwan Johnson	TE	9.7	11.0	MODERATE	18.8%	25.1%	56.0%
Tyjae Spears	RB	8.7	12.0	MODERATE	17.6%	44.8%	37.6%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	13.2	15.0	MODERATE	16.9%	61.6%	21.5%
Jacoby Brissett	QB	18.7	22.0	BOOM	13.5%	50.0%	36.4%
Bucky Irving	RB	15.2	15.0	MODERATE	12.9%	38.9%	48.2%
Jayden Reed	WR	11.2	8.0	BUST	12.9%	35.6%	51.5%
Jameson Williams	WR	13.9	18.0	BOOM	12.6%	44.9%	42.6%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	9.3	6.0	BUST	11.9%	28.2%	59.9%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	19.9	21.5	BOOM	11.4%	66.0%	22.6%
Rams D/ST	D/ST	4.2	8.0	MODERATE	10.6%	29.7%	59.7%
Devin Singletary	RB	7.5	6.0	BUST	9.6%	30.1%	60.4%
Omarion Hampton	RB	13.2	8.0	BUST	9.0%	33.3%	57.7%

League Standings

Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank	Team	Record	PF (Total)	PA (Total)	+/-	This Week	Streak	Playoff %
1	Kitty's Piggy Skins	10-5	1993.5	1800.6	+192.9	132.3 vs 124.1	L1	100.0%
2	4th and pinches	10-5	1856.2	1860.5	-4.3	85.1 vs 95.1	W2	100.0%
3	Valued Customers ←	9-6	1917.9	1643.7	+274.2	95.1 vs 85.1	W5	100.0%
4	Ryan's Rowdy Team	8-7	1884.0	1857.2	+26.8	124.1 vs 132.3	W1	100.0%
5	Wookie of the Year	8-7	1867.8	1813.3	+54.5	161.9 vs 81.4	L1	0.0%
6	Meat Pistols	8-7	1596.4	1826.8	-230.4	81.4 vs 161.9	L2	0.0%
7	Torta Pounders Football Club	7-8	1791.8	1811.8	-20.0	61.2 vs 137.1	L2	0.0%
8	Moms rules	7-8	1802.0	1839.7	-37.7	137.1 vs 61.2	W1	0.0%
9	Smooth Roosters	7-8	1769.3	1760.0	+9.2	104.8 vs 113.1	W3	0.0%
10	The Warsaw Pact	6-9	1766.6	1856.8	-90.2	113.1 vs 104.8	W2	0.0%
11	Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	6-9	1715.6	1806.9	-91.3	131.6 vs 117.3	L5	0.0%
12	Auto DraftKings	4-11	1815.2	1898.9	-83.8	117.3 vs 131.6	L4	0.0%

Week 17 Matchups

Away Team	Score		Score	Home Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins	132.3	@	124.1	Ryan's Rowdy Team
4th and pinches	85.1	@	95.1	Valued Customers
Wookie of the Year	161.9	@	81.4	Meat Pistols
Torta Pounders Football Club	61.2	@	137.1	Moms rules
Smooth Roosters	104.8	@	113.1	The Warsaw Pact
Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	131.6	@	117.3	Auto DraftKings

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Cumulative Points

Week 17 Championship Finals Research Analysis

CRITICAL INJURY UPDATES (Verified Dec 21, 2025)

JORDAN LOVE (QB, GB) - OUT (Concussion) - Suffered concussion Week 16 vs Bears, ruled OUT - MAJOR impact on our roster - need backup QB plan - Malik Willis (backup) also banged up - Source: Reddit r/fantasyfootball, NFL.com

RASHEE RICE (WR, KC) - OUT (IR) - Confirmed out for regular season (LCL surgery) - Remove from consideration - Source: Chiefs injury report

LAMAR JACKSON (BAL) - OUT - BAL's starting QB out with back injury - Makes GB defense WEAKER (helps our WR if Love was playing) - Tyler Huntley starting - Source: Ravens beat reporters

MARVIN HARRISON JR. (WR, ARI) - ACTIVE - Returned Week 16 from heel injury - Cardinals eliminated from playoffs - may see limited snaps - Elite matchup vs CIN (5th-worst vs QB)

VEGAS LINES ANALYSIS

Game	Total	Spread	Key Insight
GB @ BAL	46.5	GB -5.5	High-scoring, but Love OUT changes everything
ARI @ CIN	51.5	CIN -6.0	HIGHEST TOTAL - shootout expected, Brissett/MHJ benefit
SEA vs CAR	43.5	SEA -7.5	Good spot for JSN, Myers
TB vs MIA	46.5	TB -4.5	Bucky Irving solid floor game
DET @ MIN	48.5	DET -3.5	Christmas Day shootout, JWill upside
TEN vs NO	39.5	NO -1.5	Lower total, Spears/Juwan average
LAC vs HOU	40.0	HOU -1.5	Hampton tough matchup vs best RB defense
KC vs DEN	36.5	DEN -11.5	Chiefs decimated, Pacheco limited value
LAR @ ATL	48.5	LAR -8.5	Rams D/ST upside vs struggling Falcons
NYG vs LV	42.5	NYG -3.0	Singletary neutral matchup

DEFENSE MATCHUP TIERS

ELITE MATCHUPS (Target) - MIN vs WR: #1 worst (25.2 PPG) → Jameson Williams BOOM potential - CIN vs QB: #5 worst (18.9 PPG) → Brissett excellent spot - NO vs RB: #7 worst (20.6 PPG) → Spears solid floor - BAL vs WR: #5 worst (23.5 PPG) → Jayden Reed (if Love was playing)

TOUGH MATCHUPS (Downgrade) - HOU vs RB: #1 best (15.0 PPG) → Hampton BUST risk - DEN vs RB: #20 (16.2 PPG) → Pacheco challenging - BAL vs QB: #7 best (17.8 PPG) → Love would've struggled (now moot)

NEUTRAL - MIA vs RB: #15 → Bucky Irving standard game - CAR vs WR: #11 → JSN solid - LV vs RB: #14 → Singletary average

QB DECISION: BRISSETT vs LOVE

With Love OUT, this is now decided: - START: Jacoby Brissett (ARI) @ CIN - CIN allows 5th-most fantasy points to QBs - Game total 51.5 (highest of the week) - 74% historical BOOM probability in MC density - MHJ, McMillan as weapons

BENCH: Jordan Love (OUT - Concussion)

GAME STACKING CORRELATIONS

ARI @ CIN (Our Exposure: Brissett, MHJ, McMillan) - 51.5 game total = shootout expected - All three benefit from high-scoring environment - POSITIVE correlation: QB success = WR success

DET @ MIN (Our Exposure: Jameson Williams) - 48.5 game total, DET -3.5 - Williams vs MIN (#1 worst vs WR) - Amon-Ra St. Brown may draw coverage, opens Williams

FINAL CONFIDENCE TIERS

LOCKED-IN STARTERS: 1. Jacoby Brissett (QB) - Elite CIN matchup, 51.5 total 2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR) - SEA WR1, favorable CAR matchup 3. Bucky Irving (RB) - TB bellcow, solid floor 4. Jameson Williams (WR) - MIN worst WR defense 5. Juwan Johnson (TE) - Week 16 boom (16.9 pts), continue riding

SOLID STARTERS: 6. Tyjae Spears (RB) - Week 16 boom (21.5 pts), NO allows 7th-most to RBs 7. Tetairoa McMillan (WR/FLEX) - CIN shootout, rookie upside 8. Jason Myers (K) - SEA K, CAR allows 31 PPG

QUESTIONABLE/BENCH: - Marvin Harrison Jr. - Heel concerns, ARI eliminated - Omarion Hampton - HOU #1 RB defense - Jayden Reed - Love OUT kills his value - Jordan Love - OUT (concussion)

DO NOT PLAY: - Rashee Rice - OUT (IR) - Isiah Pacheco - Chiefs decimated, rib injury

Reddit Insights

Hot Topics

Jordan Love concussion - ruled OUT
Lamar Jackson back injury - OUT
Quinshon Judkins broken leg
TreVeyon Henderson OUT

Positive Buzz: Bucky Irving, Jameson Williams, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Negative Buzz: Jordan Love, Rashee Rice, Jayden Reed (without Love)

Mixed Buzz: Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel), Omarion Hampton (matchup)

Sources

Unknown (2025-12-21)
Unknown (2025-12-21)
Unknown (2025-12-21)
Unknown (2025-12-21)
Unknown (2025-12-21)

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

No Debates Yet

Run /debate "Your question" to start a Crystal Society debate.

Examples:

"Should I start Player A over Player B?"
"Is this FA worth picking up?"
"What's the boom/bust outlook for Player X?"

Week 17 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

5.4

Our Team MAE

17 players

5.1

Opponent MAE

9 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 5.3

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Actual	Error
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	18.7	22.0	10.6	-11.4
Opponent	RB	Kareem Hunt	11.0	-	0.2	-10.8
Opponent	TE	Trey McBride	16.8	-	6.7	-10.1
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	12.2	12.0	2.4	-9.6
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	8.7	12.0	21.5	+9.5
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	13.2	8.0	16.5	+8.5
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.1	10.0	2.0	-8.0
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	15.2	15.0	7.1	-7.9
Our Team	RB	Isiah Pacheco	9.3	6.0	13.5	+7.5
Opponent	RB	Rico Dowdle	15.2	-	8.3	-6.9
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	13.9	18.0	12.0	-6.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.7	11.0	16.9	+5.9
Opponent	WR	DK Metcalf	13.5	-	8.2	-5.3
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	13.2	15.0	19.3	+4.3
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	4.2	8.0	4.0	-4.0
Opponent	QB	Baker Mayfield	16.6	-	12.7	-3.9
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	17.3	0.0	3.8	+3.8
Opponent	D/ST	Jaguars D/ST	5.7	-	2.0	-3.7
Opponent	K	Harrison Butker	8.0	-	11.0	+3.0
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	19.9	21.5	23.6	+2.1
Our Team	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	4.2	6.0	4.0	-2.0
Opponent	RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	23.9	-	22.8	-1.1
Opponent	WR	Michael Wilson	14.1	-	13.2	-0.9
Our Team	WR	Jayden Reed	11.2	8.0	7.1	-0.9
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	7.5	6.0	5.6	-0.4
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0

Week 16 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)

6.2

Our Team MAE

17 players

4.3

Opponent MAE

9 players

6.6

Free Agent MAE

6 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 5.7

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Actual	Error
Free Agent	K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	0.0	-	16.0	+16.0
Free Agent	RB	Isiah Pacheco	0.0	-	13.5	+13.5
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	8.7	10.0	21.5	+11.5
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	17.4	15.0	3.8	-11.2
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	18.8	21.0	10.6	-10.4
Opponent	TE	Trey McBride	16.8	-	6.7	-10.1
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	15.9	22.0	12.0	-10.0
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	14.2	12.0	2.4	-9.6
Our Team	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	4.2	12.0	4.0	-8.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.1	9.0	16.9	+7.9
Our Team	RB	Isiah Pacheco	9.1	6.0	13.5	+7.5
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	15.2	14.0	7.1	-6.9
Opponent	RB	Rico Dowdle	15.2	-	8.3	-6.9
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	13.1	13.0	19.3	+6.3
Our Team	WR	Jayden Reed	11.2	13.0	7.1	-5.9
Opponent	WR	DK Metcalf	13.5	-	8.2	-5.3
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	17.8	5.0	0.0	-5.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Patriots D/ST	0.0	-	5.0	+5.0
Opponent	RB	Michael Carter	11.0	-	6.5	-4.5
Free Agent	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	0.0	-	4.0	+4.0
Opponent	QB	Baker Mayfield	16.6	-	12.7	-3.9
Opponent	D/ST	Jaguars D/ST	5.6	-	2.0	-3.6
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	13.2	13.0	16.5	+3.5
Opponent	K	Harrison Butker	8.0	-	11.0	+3.0
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	7.5	4.0	5.6	+1.6
Opponent	RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	23.8	-	22.8	-1.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Chiefs D/ST	0.0	-	1.0	+1.0
Opponent	WR	Michael Wilson	13.4	-	13.2	-0.2
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	19.9	23.6	23.6	+0.0
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.1	2.0	2.0	+0.0
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	5.7	4.0	4.0	+0.0
Free Agent	K	Eddy Pineiro	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

$xgb_position_calibration.png$

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 17 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.